守护者药房服务（GRDN）JAX实地运营：持续增长与坚定信心

USA | Healthcare ServicesGuardian Pharmacy Services On The Ground In JAX - Durable Growth &Conviction Reinforced We toured GRDN's Jacksonville pharmacy and walked away with greaterappreciation for the stickiness of the co's relationships with assisted livingcommunities, emerging opportunities in IDD facilities, the importance of theco's culture to its growth model and how GRDN is differentiated to its facilitypartners, as well as remaining oppties to continue driving durable growth bothorganically & through tuck-in M&A. Reiterate Buy. We visited GRDN's JAX pharmacy w/ investors last week. Key takes are: GRDN's Growth is Durable, Supported By Consistent Execution & Favorable Structural Tailwinds. •Secular Tailwinds:We have been bullish on sr housing given expected resident growth overthe next decade from baby boomers turning 80 (avg age of entry into sr housing), & our meetingwith GRDN facility partners reinforced this view, with operators underscoring new resident/occupancy adds & how that's translating to patient/rev growth for GRDN.• Execution is Top Notch:Our tour gave us greater appreciation for the execution that mgmt hasinstituted across its operations. In addition to methodical approaches to sales, account mgmt,& daily logistics, we gained insights into GRDN's efforts in automation, billing & collection, andemerging oppties in IDD market.• Partnerships Drive Increased Penetration/Growth:From meeting w/ GRDN's partners, wegained insight into the alignment of incentives between the co & its partner facilities. HavingGRDN deliver meds to an ALF/IDD translates to improved Rx compliance, reduced operationalrisk, improved care coordination, & enhanced labor efficiencies that make operators encouragetheir residents to use GRDN for their pharmacy needs.• Culture Is Important:In our mtgs, we gained better understanding of GRDN's de-centralizedoperating strategy (i.e., data/Rx entry, billing, disty contracting are all done at local level) &learned how its ALF partners appreciated & preferred this approach that has allowed GRDN todifferentiate itself from competitors, translating to share gains & deeper market penetration. Solid Balance Sheet = Capital Allocation Flexibility.With ~$65MM of cash & mgmt's M&A strategyto execute 2–3 acquisitions & 1–2 greenfield/yr, mgmt & the Board have flexibility to deploy capitalwhere it drives optimal shareholder value. With healthy FCF & relatively low $ spend on deals/greenfields, we see potl for share buybacks or even a dividend that would help expand the co'sownership base/valuation. Brian Tanquilut * | Equity Analyst(615) 963-8338 | btanquilut@jefferies.com Brett Grulkowski, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (615) 963-8316 | bgrulkowski@jefferies.com Jack Slevin, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-4686 | jslevin@jefferies.com Meghan Holtz * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 708-2876 | mholtz1@jefferies.com Cameron Harbilas * | Equity Associate+1 (615) 963-8319 | charbilas@jefferies.com The Long View: Guardian Pharmacy Services Investment Thesis •As the largest pharmacy provider in the assisted living industry, GRDNoperates a differentiated business model benefitting from senior livingsupply/demand imbalance, demographic tailwinds, and a higher acuitypopulation.•We believe GRDN can mitigate the IRA headwinds and return to LT organic+LDD % EBITDA growth with consistent M&A augmenting that boosts theoutlook to +12-16% sustainable EBITDA growth. Upside Scenario,$56, +30% Downside Scenario,$25, -42% Base Case,$50, +16% •Occupancy growth within ALF leads to HSD %growth in residents served•2026 IRA headwind mitigated through PBMnegotiations•2027 & 2028 IRA impacts in-line with mgmtguidance•Margin expansion timeline in recent acquisitioncohort takes 3-4 yrs•1–2 contiguous startups launched&2–3acquisitions closed per year•FY27E EBITDA: $140MM; Target Multiple: ~22x(from ~20x)•PT: $50 •Occupancy growth within senior living facilitiesstalls; resident growth slows to MSD %•$7MM+ 2026 IRA headwind and 2027 impactproves material•2027 & 2028 IRA impacts prove larger thanguidance•Recent acquisition cohort margin ramp takeslonger than anticipated•Market expansion slows and contiguousstartup launches decelerate•FY27E EBITDA: $120MM; Target Multiple: ~13x•PT: $25 •Occupancy growth within senior living facilitiesramps faster than expected - LDD %•2026 IRA headwind fully mitigated through PBMnegotiations & enhanced disbursement fees•Immaterial 2027 & 2028 IRA impacts•Margins expand quicker than anticipated inrecent acquisition cohort•Contiguous startup and acquisitions paceaccelerates•FY27E EBITDA: $150MM; Target Multiple: ~23x•PT: $56 Catalysts Sustainability Matters Top Material Issue(s): 1) Patient Care:Deliver timely and accurate medication management for long-term care residents, ensuring safety and continuity of care as a cornerstone of its mission.2)DataPrivacy:Prioritize the protection of sensitive health information through cybersecurity measures andstrict compliance with H