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China (PRC) | InternetAlibaba Equity ResearchJune 11, 2026 Competitive Moat is Intact; Reaffirm Top Pick BABA's share price has been volatile over the past few days, with newsflowand industry trends coming to investors' attention. In our view: (1) AliCloud'scompetitive moat is intact, with full-stack capabilities; (2) MaaS revenue &margin are healthy; (3) This is not an exciting year for 618, which is not new,per our recent expert call; (4) 618 marketing rectifications are industry-wideacross platforms; (5) Change in DingTalk CEO is factored into share price. AliCloud's competitive moat is intact.According to media reports (e.g. Bloomberg) on 9Jun, the government is preparing to invest RMB2tn (USD295bn) in data centers over the nextfive years. The technology relies on domestic chips (e.g. Huawei) amid the migration fromforeign chips, and the investment would be backed by sovereign debt. This news has not beenconfirmed by an official source. The market is concerned about intensifying competition withprivate hyperscalers. The market is also concerned about the price cuts by DeepSeek andmedia reports (e.g. Reuters) on possible price cuts overseas by OpenAI. In our view, AliCloud’sMaaS revenue and margin are healthy and on track. AliCloud's competitive moat and full-stack capabilities are unchanged, with: (1) ARR undergoing fast growth, and expected to reachRMB10bn (USD1.5bn) in Jun quarter and surpass RMB30bn (USD4.5bn) by year-end. (2) risingAI revenue contribution, which the company targets to reach 50% in a year's time. Margin profileis expected to improve. (3) Cloud revenue expected to rise by over 40% CAGR to USD100bnin 2030. This is not an exciting year for 618, which is not something new.We observed slowdownin industry GMV growth and parcel volume since Mar. According to NBS, GMV for physicalgoods increased by 5.7% YoY in 4M26, which implies 0.2% YoY in the month of Apr. Per ourrecent expert call (link), Mr. Li believes there will be slight YoY growth in industry GMV thisyear. Merchants put profitability first, supported by AI. Highlights: (1) Merchants shifting KPIfrom GMV to profitability. (2) AI is the focus in understanding consumer preferences. (3) Low-price strategy is not the only factor that determines success in 618. Merchants need to moreclosely abide by existing and new requirements, such as ecommerce tax. (4) The top hostsenvironment in live-streaming ecommerce is different this year vs prior years. (5) On 618 thisyear, the expert expects slight YoY growth in industry GMV. Ecommerce companies across the board must rectify the 618 marketing slogan.Accordingto the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) today, the five ecommerce platformsBABA/JD/PDD/Douyin/Xiaohongshu must rectify “RMB10bn subsidies” as there is no specifictimeline and quantum of subsidies contributed by the platforms/merchants. In addition, thereare no detailed rules on the RMB10bn campaign. The goal of the authorities is to rectify theinvolution issue. Change in DingTalk CEO factored into the share price.BABA announced the appointment ofa new CEO for DingTalk, Chen Yusen, who previously worked on AI Agent product MuleRun inAliCloud. The Alibaba Partnership Committee highlighted Alibaba's corporate culture, and theemphasis on the well-being of employees. Thomas Chong * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8016 | thomas.chong@jefferies.com Zoey Zong * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8163 | zoey.zong@jefferies.com We would like to thank Fiona Fan, employee of Evalueserve Inc., for providing research support services to our preparation of this report.We would like to thank Han Wang, employee of Evalueserve Inc., for providing research support services to our preparation of this report.We would like to thank Erica Qiu, employee of Evalueserve Inc., for providing research support services to our preparation of this report. Company Description Alibaba Alibaba is the largest online and mobile commerce company in the world in terms of gross merchandise volume in 2013, according to industrysources. The company operates its marketplaces as platforms for third parties and does not engage in direct sales, compete with merchants,or hold inventory. Company Valuation/Risks Alibaba Our price target of US$185/HK$179 is based on SOTP valuation. Key risks include: (1) severe macroeconomic slowdown impacts online shoppinggrowth; (2) aggressive marketing spending in local services and globalization due to intensified competition; and (3) user growth is belowexpectations. JD.com, Inc. We have a Buy rating and PT of US$49/HK$190 based on 7x 2026E P/E (ex-new business). Key risks include: (1) Macro headwinds affecting GMVgrowth, especially in the electronics category; (2) Intensified competition leading to margin pressure from aggressive marketing spending in thegrocery category; and (3) User base growth in lower-tier cities falling below expectations on poor execution. PDD Holdings Inc. We have a Buy rating and PT of US$121 based on SOTP