特立尼达和多巴哥：若干问题（英）

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO SELECTED ISSUES June 2026 This paperonTrinidad and Tobagowas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO SELECTED ISSUES April 27,2026 ApprovedByWestern Hemisphere Prepared ByCarlos Chaverri Morales,Peter NagleandJustin Matz (allWHD) CONTENTS ANCHORING SUSTAINABLE PUBLIC FINANCES: FISCAL RULE OPTIONS FOR A. Introduction________________________________________________________________________3B. Long-Term Fiscal Anchor___________________________________________________________7C. Near-Term Anchor Price-Based Rules_______________________________________________9 FIGURES 1. Fiscal Developments (1990–2025)___________________________________________________42. PIH: Non-Energy Primary Balance and Net Financial Assets_________________________93. Benchmark Prices__________________________________________________________________104. Counterfactual Scenario: Central Government Debt andNet Financial Assets_____12 TABLES 1. Fiscal Rules Main Categories________________________________________________________62. Non-Energy Primary Balance Medium-Term Fiscal Adjustment_____________________8 References___________________________________________________________________________14 BOOSTING NON-ENERGY GROWTH THROUGH DIVERSIFICATION AND STRUCTURAL REFORMS____________________________________________________________15 A. Introduction_______________________________________________________________________15B. Diversification Efforts and Their Limitations________________________________________17 D. Horizontal Diversification________________________________________________________________________20E. Financial Diversification: The Heritage and Stabilization Fund____________________________________22 FIGURES 1. Energy Sector Trends____________________________________________________________________________152. Energy Trends and The Economy________________________________________________________________163. Current Account Balance Scenarios and Key Export Prices_______________________________________194. Importance of LNG and Petrochemicals__________________________________________________________205. Energy Intensity of Non-Energy Goods Exports__________________________________________________216. Resource Allocation and Constraints_____________________________________________________________24 References____________________________________________________________________________________________27 PUBLIC RETIREMENT BENEFITS SYSTEM: FEATURES AND REFORM OPTIONS_________________28 A. Demographics and Aging________________________________________________________________________28B. Overview of the Current Retirement System_____________________________________________________29C. Fiscal Sustainability_________________________________________________________________________________32D. Adequacy of Social Retirement Benefits_________________________________________________________34E. Policy Options____________________________________________________________________________________35 FIGURES 1. Demographics___________________________________________________________________________________292. National Insurance System_______________________________________________________________________323. Impact of Reforms on the National Insurance System andFuture AdjustmentsNeeded_________334. Coverage of Public Retirement Schemes_________________________________________________________34 TABLE 1. Pension Pillars Based on the World Bank'sConceptual Framework______________________________30 ANNEX I. Summary of Recommendations from the 11th ActuarialReview and Other Reform Options_____38 References__________________________________________________________________________________________40 ANCHORING SUSTAINABLE PUBLIC FINANCES: FISCAL Trinidad and Tobago’s public finances remain highly dependent on volatile energy revenues,contributing to procyclical fiscal outcomes and a sustained increase in public debt since the late 2000s.These challenges underscore the need for a fiscal frameworkthat reduces exposure to energy price A.Introduction 1.Trinidad and Tobago’s economy and public finances are highly dependent on the energy sector.Oil and gas production has positioned the country as a leading petrochemical hubin the Caribbean, underpinning economic growth and facilitating convergence toward higher percapita income levels. In 2025, the energy sector accounted for nearly 20 percent of GDP, about 80percent of exports of goods and roughly 35 percent of central government revenues. While this 2.Fiscal outcomes have closely mirrored developments in