Lumentum（LITE US）通过光技术促进AI增长，首次覆盖给予买入评级

Scaling AI through light;initiate at BUY We initiate coverage on Lumentum with a BUY ratingand TP of US$1,070,based on35xFY28E P/E.We viewthe Companyas one of the few pure-playAI optical platform leaders positioned across the highest-value bottlenecks ofnext-generation AI datacom interconnect:InP lasers,optical circuit switch(OCS)and co-packaged optics(CPO)/external laser source(ELS).Theinvestment case is not about optical transceiver share alone, but Lumentum’sability to monetize the scarce layers that enable AI clusters to scale:Qualifiedlight sources, optical fabric control and external laser-source platforms. We Target PriceUS$1070.00Up/Downside25.4%Current PriceUS$853.26 GlobalSemiconductors Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkKevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Lumentum is not a single-cycle optical module story.Its AI exposurespans multiple architectures:electro-absorption modulated laser(EML) for800G/1.6T pluggables,continuous wave(CW) lasers for SiPh, UHP/ELS forCPO, and OCS for AI fabric reconfiguration. With the optical roadmap stillevolving, the winning architecture may differ by speed, reach and customer Aaron GUO(852) 3916 3715aaronguo@cmbi.com.hk Growth engines are staggeredinto2028.We seeInP lasers asthe near-termcapacity-constrained driver,supported by tight supply and longqualification cycles. OCS should contributemore visibly from 2H26/2027 ashyperscaler deployments scale, while CPO/ELS provides medium-termupside as optics moves closer to ASICs and XPUs. This staggered ramp is Premium valuation supported by EPS acceleration.We forecast FY28Enon-GAAP EPS ofUS$30.6and valuethe CompanyatUS$1,070per shareby applying35x P/E,slightly higher than itsAI optical peersaverage of 32.1xCY27 P/E.We believe the valuation is supported by improving revenue Key risks: InP ramp delays, OCS shipment delays, CPO/ELS adoptionuncertainty,module pricing pressure,customer concentration and Source: FactSet Investment thesis Pure-play AI optical platform across bottleneck layers Lumentum is one of the few pure-play AI optical platform leaders positionedacross themost supply-constrained and qualification-heavy layers of next-generation AI interconnect:InP lasers, OCS, and CPO/ELS. The investment case is not about optical transceiver sharealone, but the Company’s ability to monetize the scarce layers that enable AI clusters toscale: qualified light sources, optical fabric control and external laser-source platforms. AsAI networks move from simple 800G/1.6T module upgrades toward larger scale-out andscale-up fabrics, value capture is increasingly shifting toward products where reliability, Multiple optical revenue engines to drive earnings resilience The Company’searnings resilience comes from the fact thatits AI exposure isnot tied toone optical architecture or a single module cycle. The Company sits at the commonbottleneck across multiple roadmaps, includingqualified light sources and optical switching.Electro-absorption modulated laser(EML)supportsthe near-term 800G/1.6T pluggable These engines also have different timing, creating a more durable earnings ramp.InPlasersprovide the near-term capacity-constrained growth driver;OCSshould contributeearningsmore visibly from 2H26/2027 as hyperscaler deployments scale; andCPO/ELS provide medium-term upside as optics moves closer to ASICs and XPUs. This makes theinvestment case broader than a simple 800G/1.6T volume story: even if one architecture Improving earnings quality from AI capex tailwinds, mix shift We believe Lumentum’s earnings visibility is improving as AI optical demand broadens froma transceiver upgrade cycle into a system-level infrastructure buildout. Hyperscalercapexis driving demand for higher bandwidth density, lower latency, better power efficiency andmoreflexible optical fabrics,expanding Lumentum’s opportunity beyond high-speed More importantly,this growthshould carry better margin quality than prior optical cycles.Incremental revenue is increasingly tied to qualification-heavy and capacity-constrainedproducts such as EML/CW/UHP lasers, OCS and external light-source platforms, ratherthanlower-margin module assembly alone.Together with internal sourcing,higher Initiate coverage on Lumentum (LITE US) with BUY; TP at We initiate coverage on Lumentum with aBUYrating and target price ofUS$1,070, basedon35x FY28E non-GAAP P/E. We view Lumentum as one of the few pure-play AI opticalplatform leaders positioned across the most supply-constrained and qualification-heavy We forecastitsrevenue to grow81%/98% YoY in FY26E/27E, driven by InP capacityexpansion, OCS volume shipments, 800G/1.6T optical module ramp-up and increasing(ultra-high power)UHPlaser/ELS contribution. We expect non-GAAP GPM to expand to 46%/51% in FY26E/27Eand further to52% in FY28E, supported by mix improvement,bettercapacity yield and operating leverage. We forecast FY28E non-GAAP EPS ofUS$30.6, andapplying35x P/E,slightly aboveits AI optic