为缅甸流离失所人口设计就业干预措施

DesigningEmploymentInterventions The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in thiswork and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination ofits knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes as long Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202522-2625; Attribution—Please cite the work as follows:Sinha Roy, Sutirtha; Zewdie, Mulugeta; Al Asad, Musa;Nozaki Kiso, Natsuko. 2026. Designing Employment Interventions for Displaced Populations in Myanmar. Acknowledgements The report was prepared under the guidance of Melinda Good (Division Director for Myanmar andThailand); Noriko Takagi (Country Representative, UN High Commissioner for Refugees — UNHCR);Lalita M. Moorty (Regional Practice Director, East Asia and the Pacific); Anne Tully (Country Manager, The team is especially grateful to Marco Scuriatti (Senior Operations Officer, GTFS1), Abdelqader HamedBakir (Program Officer, GTFS1), Jeannette Ramirez (Operations Officer, GTFS1). This work was alsosupported by the State and Peacebuilding 2.0 Umbrella Trust Fund (SPF2.0), a global multi-donor fund The work also benefited from close collaboration with UNHCR colleagues based in Yangon — PankajaBhattarai, Nasir Khan, and Thinn Thinn Wai — as well as staff from the Bangkok Regional Office, including The team gratefully acknowledges peer review comments from Kathleen Beegle (Lead Economist, DECPP),Johannes G. Hoogeveen (Senior Economist, EAWPV), Ioana Alexandra Botea (Senior Social ProtectionEconomist, HEASP), Patrick John Barron (Senior Social Development Specialist, WKHS2), Thomas Ginn The team also benefited greatly from technical guidance and collaboration with Roy van der Weide(Senior Economist, DECPP), Travis Baseler (Assistant Professor, University of Rochester), and KemohMansaray (Senior Economist, EEAM1). Jingle Liu and Cindy Yawen Cheng provided excellent research Table of Contents Acknowledgements 5 1. THE VULNERABILITY SPECTRUM 2. PARTICIPATION — WHO IS EXCLUDED FROM WORKPathways to promote participation for those out of labor forcePathways to enable productive employment for active job seekers 3. PRODUCTIVITY — WHAT JOBS DO DISPLACED WORKERS HOLD AND WHO HIRES THEMWho hires displaced workers and who does not?Skills upgrading as a pathway to increased productivity and earnings 4. MATCHING — WHY DO WORKERS AND EMPLOYERS FAIL TO CONNECT?Where employer-worker matches likely break downPathways to closing matching frictions APPENDIX A: LEONA — SAMPLING, SURVEY DESIGN AND KEY DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONSGeographic coverageSettlement types and location List of figures i.The Participation-Productivity-Matching (PPM) framework to identify potential entry points1.Population share of IDPs and returnees within states, regions and sub-regions2.Population shares exhibiting characteristics consistent with resilient solutions3.Estimated populations by township by potential for livelihood or emergency interventions4.Employment trends over the spectrum of vulnerability5.Employment patterns by individual characteristics and over the vulnerability spectrum6.Embedded human capital among individuals currently in NEET status7.Main sectors of employment for willing job seekers8.Embedded human capital among job seekers across the three groups9.Financial access among groups10.Type of employment by category11.Socioeconomic profile of casual and self-employed workers12.Casual wage distribution A.1.Coverage by population group at the Admin-3 levelA.2.Proportion of IDP and returnee households residing in displacement sites or camp-like settingsA.3.Poverty distribution at the township level Executive Summary Myanmar’s prolonged conflict requires sustained humanitarian assistance alongside new interventionsthat enable greater self-reliance among displaced populations.Since February 2021, conflict in Myanmarhas deepened poverty and displacement, expanding humanitarian needs amid increasingly constrained This report addresses the challenge of strengthening self-reliance by outlining a menu of interventionsthat expands participation, raises productivity and earnings, and reduces job-matching frictionsfor displaced populations.Drawing on new livelihoods-focused evidence from the Livelihoods and The report shows that nearly one-third of Myanmar’s 3.5 million displaced people are in a “transitional”state and display poverty and employment outcomes closer to host