全球能源周报：霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻致天然气液态原料短缺

Hormuzdisrupting seaborne gas liquids trade flows… CommoditiesGlobal Last week we considered various potential scenariosfor oil or LNG(see our report,Iranwar wipes out energy surplus), but the Iran war is disrupting seaborne trade across manydifferent commodities. Last year ~37% of seaborne naphtha and ~24% of seaborne LPGwent through the Strait to reach global markets and now these critical petchem feedstocksare mostly stranded in the Middle East. The Strait has already been effectively closed formore than 2 weeks and many petchems across Asia and Europe face difficulty procuring GlobalCommodity ResearchBofA Europe (Madrid)Clifton WhiteCommodity StrategistBofAS+1 713 247 6812 Tej SatheEquity-Linked AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1620 …as USpetchems grow share via domestic feedstocks Francisco BlanchCommodity & Deriv StrategistBofA Europe (Madrid)+34 91 514 3070 Even though the global feedstock slate has trended lighter in recent years (see ourreport,Gas liquids in political spotlight), naphtha still represents the largest share ofpetchem feedstocks in Asia and Europe. The US consumes domestically producedfeedstocks, whereas Asia and Europe must rely on international trade routes for naphthaand LPG imports. Prolonged shipping restrictions in the Strait could allow the US to take Rachel WiserCommodity StrategistBofAS+1 646 743 4069 Michael WidmerCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 0694 US propane likely continues to lag global benchmarks… Most of global LPG growth in the past decade has come from the US yet the MiddleEast still accounts for ~20% of global production. Asia relies heavily on LPG imports andnow must search elsewhere for replacements until the Strait is a reliable passagewayagain. Although there is potential for increased US propane exports, especially if flexexport capacity is switched to LPG (see our report,NGLs get flexible), there is likely limitedstructural domestic propane growth. While the rest of the world scrambles to replace For a glossary of acronyms and otherabbreviations, seeExhibit 33 …while relaxed gasoline specscould drive butane demand Last year our equity colleagues (seeour report,A Blue Sweep) and we (see our report,Northeast power in AI spotlight) were concerned about high electricity prices impactingelections, but gasoline prices were deflationary. Since the start of Epic Fury, gasolinehas increased by ~27% (~$0.8/gal) at the pump with March MTD prices averaging morethan 10% higher YoY. We believe the President might consider waivers to gasolinespecifications amid rising fuel prices, which could allow more butane blended into Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets andthe financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of Gas liquids dry up in Hormuz heat Strait of Hormuz disruptions are impacting seaborne naphtha and LPG… Last week we considered various potential scenariosthat could lead to militaryoperations spilling over into 2Q, 3Q, or even 4Q26 and create very different paths forsupply and demand of oil or LNG(see our report,Iran war wipes out energy surplus). The Iran conflict is disrupting seaborne trade for many different commodities that passedthrough the Strait of Hormuz prior to the start of the Iran war (Exhibit 3). Last year~37% of seaborne naphtha and ~24% of seaborne LPGwent through the Strait to reachglobal markets and now these critical petchem feedstocks are effectively stranded in the Exhibit4:The US petchem industry isbenefiting fromdomestic gasliquid production surplus and relatively cheaper US NGL prices …which puts the plastics industry at risk of reduced production We heard about“2 weeks to stop the spread of Covid”in 2020 and now we are hearingfrom the Trump Administration that the energy crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could last“weeks, not months”. The Strait has already been effectively closed for more than 2weeks and many petchems are facing difficulty procuring feedstocks needed to keepcapacity online. Since 2000 there have only been 2 years, Financial Crisis in 2008 and Exhibit5:Since 2000 there have only been 2 years, Financial Crisis in2008 and Covid in 2020, where annual plastic demand declined… Asian and European petchems are heavily exposed to naphtha… Even though the Asia feedstock slate has trended lighter in recent years, led by Chinaadding ethane crackers (see our report,Gas liquids in political spotlight), naphtha still represents the largest share of petchem feedstocks across Asia and now feedstocksupplies from the Middle East are being disrupted. The Middle East and US consumedomestically produced feedstocks, whereas Asia and Europe are heavily reliant onnaphtha and LPG