保持EURUSD空头夏季

Global summer: techs + fundamentals point to downside. Alex Cohen, CFAFX StrategistBofAS . Technicals: Post NFP, euro broke trend line support. A head and shoulders top is stillforming. And 2018 is still repeating..Fundamentals: Relative data flow underpriced, amid growing risk to USD-supportivemonetary policy repricing.View:KeepEURUSDshortsthissummer Paul Ciana, CMTTechnical StrategistBofASpaul.ciana@bofa.com Michalis RousakisFX StrategistMLI (UK) 1.15/1.13 3m put spread (spot 1.1610, vols 6.22%/6.72%) at a cost of 0.3591% (current: michalis.rousakis@bofa.comAdarsh SinhaFX and Rates StrategistMLI (UK) 0.47%).We remain short.See report: Six reasons to short euro 20 May2026Technicals: Euro broke support, bias is to fade bounces adarsh.sinha@bofa.com One immediate market response to thelatest USpayrolls release was adecline in euro,which broke an uptrend line and reinforced our bearish view. On June 8, euro tested the psychological 1.15 support level and has begun to bounce. We prefer to fade reboundsand continue to look for renewed downside.On the weekly chart, euro continues to formthe right shoulder of a head and shoulders top, with neckline support at 1.1411-1.1392.A decisive break below this zone would materially increase downside risk.Finally, DxY behaviour during President Trump's second term continues to track his first. recommendations and traderecommendations closed in the last12 months, please see the Global FXWeekly:Agameof two halvesreport. In 2018, the second year of term one, DxY bottomed in the first half and rallied in thesecond.DxY is now attempting to base, with a daily close above 100.51 needed toconfirm a renewed uptrend and continuing repeating 2018.Fundamentals: relative data vs. geopolitical wish-casting There is a case to bemade for EUR/USD to potentially trade through our Q2 forecast of 1.14, which is also just below its 12-month lows. The growth divergence between theUS and EA is notable and arguably being underpriced by rates markets.But hope for a peace agreement in the Middle East has prevented larger themes from taking hold. Even as there has been some associated reprieve in energy markets, upsiderisks points to downside risks to the EUR (from a terms-of-trade perspective). Thissuggests a real possibility of further USD supportive Fed repricing,while ECB hikescould prove counter-productive for the EUR. In the meantime, the market will likely be in a more of a holding pattern as these nexttwo weeks bring the May CPI report (this Wed) and the first FOMC under Chair Warsh(next Wed). Any hint of further upside pressure from the data, or a less assertive dovishtone from Chair Warsh could serve as the next (non-lran related) catalyst for a USD rally. Keep EUR shorts on this summerEURUSD:BearishtrendlinebreakdownPost strongUSpayroll data,eurobroketrend line support Following stronger-than-expected US payrolls data on June 5, EURUSD sold off sharply, breaking below trendline support and falling to its lowest level since early April. Thisbreakdown reinforces our bearish bias.On June 8, EURUSD tested 1.15 and has since started to bounce. In the near term, we view former support as resistance, beginning at 1.1576 (May 21 low) and extending upto the broken trendline near 1.16.We continue to favor selling EUR into rallies, including the current bounce. Ideally, EURUSD does not post a daily close above the prior range resistances, which include the50-day SMA, 200-day SMA, and downtrend line in the 1.1671-1.1685 area. Daily candles, 50d SMA, 20Od SMA, Ichimoku Cloud RSI, MACD, Fibonacci levels Right shoulderof a head and shoulders top continues to form Price action continues to suggest the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders top is developing, leaving EURUSD vulnerable to a deeper pullback.If this structure persists, EURUSD should retest the neckline at 1.1411-1.1392. A decisive break below this zone would confirm the topping pattern and open downsidetoward 1.11 and the rising 200-week moving average near 1.0980.While the neckline has yet to break, we view the weeks of May 15 and June 5 as key bullish impulse in the coming weeks would reduce conviction in the head-and-shouldersscenario If the DXY continues to repeat Trump's term1trend, the DXY rallies in 2H26 DxY price action continues to closely mirror the 2016-2018 post-election cycle, suggesting further upside risk if the pattern holds. We're on watch for a daily closeabove 100.51 to confirm a repeat bottom rhyming with 2018 and further upside. Thiswould be the highest daily close since May 2025, eclipsing that of March 30, 2026.FollowingtheNovember2016election, DxYbrokeout of a multi-year rangeand rallied ~6.4%, before forming a head-and-shoulders top and declining through 2017. The indexthen bottomed in 1Q18, broke higher in late April, and went on to rally a further ~6.6%into August 2018.A similar sequence has unfolded after the November 2024 election, DxY broke out and rallied ~6.3%, then fo