DHL二季度利差交易与外汇逆风，尚未受高油价宏观影响

+44 20 7676 7044alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com DHL: Lapping trade and fx headwinds in Q2, no macro headwindfrom higher oil prices yet datewiththelatestcommunication.WerecentlyspoketoDHLaheadofQ2andfreshenupournumbersfollowingtheconversation.Thekeymessages intothequarter: b)fuel price impact. DHLis conscious of the risk that higher oil prices have a negative impacton global macro, but this is not yet weighing on numbers. US tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption from prior year.Fuel prices continue tobe passed through with a 4-week lag. The direction of fuel prices in the last part of June willinfluence the extent to which this lag creates a temporary earnings effect in Q2. DGFF: Should benefit fromvolatility in markets.June is seeing a bit of a peak season in ocean.Broadly flat EBIT YoY sensible. Supply Chain: nothing too surprising.Reported growth should improve as we lap USDdepreciation from prior year, given significant size of US business. Ecommerce: Impact of UK disposal still in thenumbers,visible in lowertopline.Should startcontributing as incomefrom investments (mid-high single digit m number per quarter runrate).This was notin Q1as there were some one-off financing costsbelow EBIT. P&P:Wage increaseof 3%took effect in April (2%lastyear).Q2 shouldshowameaningfulsequentialdrop inEBIT.News on pricecontrol likely in September/October InvestmentImplications Wefreshenupnumbers andmakeminorchangestopublishedestimates,withcutstoP&Pnumbersoffsetbyincreases inExpress andEcommerce.Weare1%belowconsensusEBITon Q2,with the difference arising largelyfrom P&P.We rate DHL Market-Perform, TP 44 O - Outperform, M -Market-Perform, U- Underperform, NR -Not Rated, CS-Coverage Suspended Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. References to "Bernstein" or the"Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between Bernsteinand Societe Generale.Bernstein is partof a joint venture betweenSociete Generale (SG)and AllianceBernstein,L.P.(AB).Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. DHL Group The greatest upside risks to our DHLtarget price:· Strongerecommerce growth:Airfreight supply constraint supporting yields:Astrongermacroeconomic environment·Favorableletterprice controlin Germany The greatest downside risks to our DHLtarget price: :Weakerecommerce growthRapid airfreight supply growth diluting yields:Aweakeningmacroeconomicenvironment.Sluggish parcelprices in Germany RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernsteinbrand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based onforecasts of relativeperformance forthe next 12 months versus the S&P500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME)for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japanese(ex-Japan) exchanges-unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accurately onevents anddevelopments. And Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR(EDMFI) indexfordeveloped Europeanbanks and Payments,the Bloomberg Europe5OO Insurance Index(BEINSUR)forEuropeaninsurers, the S&P 5O0 and S&PFinancials for US banks and Payments coverage, S5LIFE for US Insurance, the S&P InsuranceSelect Industry (SPSINS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials Large, Mid andSmall Cap Price Return Index (EMLSF) for emerging market banks and insurers and Payments. Ratings are stated relative to thesector (not the market). The Autonomous brandhas three categoriesof common stockratings: :Outperform (OP):Stock will outpace the relevant index by more than 10 pp : Neutral (N): Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-10 pp : Underperform (UP): Stock willtrail the performance of the relevant index by more than 10 pp Coverage Suspended:Coverage of a company under the Autonomous researchbrand has been suspended. Ratings and price Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelyon events and developments. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under