GLP-1之外：新一代肥胖治疗药物全景梳理

S C R I P W E B I N A R | 2 6 M AY 2 0 2 6 Speakers Moderator Joseph HaasSenior WriterScrip, US Xu HuSenior ReporterScrip, China Andrew McConaghieSenior WriterScrip, UK Aakash BabuManaging EditorScrip, India Agenda INTRODUCTION TO THE OBESITY MARKET OBESITY PIPELINE & KEY CATALYSTS •Global obesity market forecasts, trends and demanddrivers.•GLP-1 landscape and the case for what comes next •Pipeline overview and upcoming data readouts•Key approvals and commercial launches to watch OBESITY BEYOND GLP-1s CHINA MARKET INSIGHTS •Amylins– the next frontier•Myostatins– quality of weight loss•Combination therapies and multiple agonists•Oral formulations takecenterstage •China-specific obesity drug development trends•Country-specific market opportunity DEALS DATA & COMMENTARY THE SEVEN WHAT-IFS •Recent deal trends and activity in the obesity space•Big pharma appetite for obesity assets •Exploring key risk scenarios that could reshape theobesity drug landscape NICHE APPROACHES & CONCLUSION US MARKET OPPORTUNITY •Untapped market potential and niche development areas•Country-specific market opportunities •Expectations on uptake, access and pricing•Upcoming launches and key potential catalysts Introductionto the ObesityMarket The Obesity Market Today $111bnProjected global obesity market by 2032 All forecasts in dollar billions Adults living with obesity globally1bn+ Adults overweight or obese worldwide2.5bn+ Obesity prevalence doubled since 19902x $3tn per yearGlobal costs of overweight and obesity by 2030 Beyond GLP-1s: Market Dynamics & DemandDrivers GLP-1 Dominance — But Gaps Remain Lilly dominates the current market All sales forecasts in dollar billions “Not everyone responds to GLP-1 drugs. So, there is definitely agap for new drugs” Tim BlackstockTherapy Area DirectorCardiovascular & metabolic and infectious diseases atDatamonitorHealthcare Obesitybeyond GLP-1s Obesity Beyond GLP-1s: Amylins &Myostatins AMYLINS — The Next Frontier MYOSTATINS — Quality of weight loss $17bn+Annual sales by 2032(Evaluate) 7+Amylin receptor agonists indevelopment (Biomedtracker) MyostatinsIn development Obesity Beyond GLP-1s: Combinations, Agonists & Oral Formulations GLP-1s and GLP-1/GIPs will continue to rule obesitysales in 2032 Oral Formulations All values in $bn (forecasts) 18+Oral obesity drugs in Phase II/III (Biomedtracker) Combinations & multiple agonists 18Fixed-dose combination trials ongoing 36 Co-administered combination trials 54 Phase II/III trials testing GLP-1 combos (Trialtrove) Deals data &commentary 2026’s Biggest Deal Deal Volume $1.2bnupfront Dealmaking in obesity exploding further from the high levels seen in 2025.Q1 2026 total already exceeds full-year 2025 at $22bn. Deal Trends Preference for additional mechanisms: amylinanalogs, triple agonists, oralGPCR/ACSL5 inhibitors, long-acting depot formulations. AstraZeneca / CSPC Dual agonist license — the largest deal of 2026 so far China’s Role $20.3bnobesity and diabetes relatedlicensing deal spending in 2025 China’s increasing role in obesity R&D and deals activity is unabated. Competitive Intent Roche, Pfizer and AstraZeneca appear focused on breaking upLilly/Novo Nordisk dominance. US marketopportunity Peak Sales Forecast US Market Dominance $150bnMorgan Stanleypeak sales by 2035 65%of the global obesity drug market GLP-1 Prescription Growth 20m → 30mUS prescriptions 2026 to 2030 $70bnGoldman Sachsrevised US peak(down from $95bn) Why Forecasts Diverge •Obesity is one of the fastest-growing markets in biopharma history— but assessment of peak size varies sharply•Goldman Sachs’ downward revision reflects price erosion, patient therapystops, and lower-dose efficacy constraining revenue•Despite divergent forecasts, US remains dominant — rising prescriptionvolumes and an expanding patient pool underpin growth Goldman Sachs cites: price erosion, patient therapy stops,lower-dose efficacy constraining revenue US Market: Access, Competition & What’s Next LILLY/NOVO DUOPOLY What’s next? Access -4% to -12%Novo Nordisk projectedrevenue decline in 2026 41Companies at Phase IIwith an obesity candidate 13States with MedicaidGLP-1 coverage •Lilly holds higher market share butalready seeing slowing growth duringQ4 due to lower realized prices •Next mechanisms: amylin agonists(CagriSema) and triple agonists(retatrutide) are the leadingcandidates to follow GLP-1s•New competition emerging:Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim andPfizer/Metseraall building USobesity presence•41 companies have now reachedPhase II — competitive intensity isset to increase significantly •Lilly and Novo both signed MostFavoredNation contracts with theWhite House — set discountprices for GLP-1s for Medicare•Medicaid coverage remainspatchy — only 13 states; CAand PA have already endedcoverage Novo has projected 4%–12% revenuedecrease in 2026 •Oral GLP-1 dynamics key —Wegovy pill (Novo) launchedJanuary 2026;Foundayo(Lilly)