全球音乐行业超级粉丝转型在即：对版权方意味着什么？

Global Music: The Industry's superfan transition is imminent.What will it mean for rightsholders? The most impactful announcement from Spotify’s recent investor day presentation wasa first-of-its-kind licensing agreement between a scaled DSP platform and a major label(Universal), creating a consent, credit & compensation-based framework for Premium userspay to create AI covers and remixes of participating catalog. We have long argued that AIis the bridge to sustainable superfan monetization for the labels rather than an existentialthreat, and this is the clearest proof yet. Through these negotiations, just a few years on fromSuno & Udio’s initial foray into AI music, we believe the category can evolve into a clearlydefined growth engine for the labels at the scale of the world's largest music platform. Ian Moore+1 917 344 8434ian.moore@bernsteinsg.com Christophe Cherblanc+41 582 723 540christophe.cherblanc@bernsteinsg.com David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com We expect Warner to sign its own AI cover and remixing deal imminently. Theopportunity runs on two engines. The first is Spotify, where Warner already earns on theorder of $1.2bn a year and a paid creation add-on layers cleanly on top. The second is the AInatives, whereWarner was first to a licensing pact with Sunoand has settled with Udio,taking a share of pools that are scaling quickly. Suno alone is running roughly ~$200-300Mof annualized revenue and scaling rapidly. Together,we see licensed AI building to a low-single-digit revenue tailwind into 2027. Min-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Nosher Ali Khan+1 917 344 8578nosher-ali.khan@bernsteinsg.com We do not assume UMG will retain “exclusivity”as consumers ignore (and don't care)about their preferred artists music companies affiliations. We leave unchanged our 5-yearalgo of 7% revs and 10% EPS growth: 1/ with Spotify generating 20% of revs (40% ofStreaming subs. revs),we estimate a 0.4% to 0.8% CAGR uplift,potentially conservativeif other DSP implement similar offers. This suggests a 10 to 20% share ofthe pricingeffect we were already modeling.2/ we expect pay-outs to be at least on par withcurrent streaming levels, to secure “participation” from artists. This implies above averagemarginal profitability, but will apply to a low share of the mix. ForSony, Spotify’s Investor Day reinforces that licensed AI and superfan monetizationare structurally positive, though more nuanced than for pure-play music peers. As one ofthe three global majors, Sony benefits directly from AI covers/remix licensing as additiverevenue layered on top of streaming, with scarce catalog acting as the key input. However,the broader shift-toward platform-controlled discovery, AI-driven creation, and non-musicrevenue pools-implies Sony participates in a growing pie but potentially cedes incrementalcontrol and share of economics over time. Hybehas already industrialized where Spotify is headed: monetizing superfandom, notjust streams. Built on “love,” its model captures value across the full idol lifecycle viaWeverse - a closed ecosystem controlling both IP and fan access. The result is high-frequency monetization across content, merch, and interaction, with every touchpointcompounding ARPU. Spotify’s K-pop push reflects this shift - not a genre bet, but a pivottoward engagement depth over scale. As AI scales personalization and interaction, theplatform is effectively converging on the K-pop playbook - where superfans pay foraccess and proximity, and integrated platform and super IP owner like Hybe capture theincremental revenue. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Spotify:We rate SPOT Outperform. Warner Music:We rate WMG Outperform. Universal Music:We rate UMG Outperform. Sony:We rate SonyMarket-Performwith PT =¥3,500.00. Hybe:We rate Hybe Outperform. DETAILS Superfan add-ons open a new royalty pool that sits on top of streaming The most important idea from Investor Day for rightsholders is that Spotify is no longer trying to grow the music pool throughprice and subscriber count alone. Management framed willingness to pay as a power law, where a small head of highly engagedusers will pay well above the standard subscription, and the company intends to capture that head through paid add-ons ratherthan a higher base price consistent with our thesis of theSuperfan. The covers and remix agreement with UMG is the first labelfacing version of this, structured as a paid Premium add-on where both the recording owner and the songwriter share in whatfans create. The key point for the industry is that this revenue is additive. It layers on top of streaming rather than redistributingthe existing pool, and because the catalog itself is the input, it does not require Spotify to grow hours listened to grow thepayout. To size it, we anchored to the one add-on Spotify has actually disclosed. Audiobooks+ is tracking to roughly $100m ofannualized revenue from more than one million pa