坎贝尔汤品公司（CPB）2026年第三季度业绩略超预期且下调目标价至18美元

Alexia Howard+1 917 344 8453alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com U.S. Food Campbell Soup Co Cinnie Lin+1 917 344 8567cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com RatingUnderperform Price Target CPB 18.00 USD(19.00OLD) Campbell's 3Q26: Modest beat but no raise, leverage remains highand pedaling hard to reduce costs Campbell’s posted a modest beat on EBIT and EPS this quarter, but this was afterlowering expectations last quarter:Yes, the company beat by 1.8% on adjusted EBITand by 2c on EPS of 50c, but this was after lowering of guidance last quarter. And adjustedEBIT down -24% and adjusted EPS down -32% year-on-year is definitely still well below theelusive long term earnings growth algorithm. Close Date8 Jun 2026CPB Close Price (USD)21.49Price Target (USD)18.00Upside/(Downside)(16)%52-Week Range34.56/19.56SPX7,405.73FYEJulDiv Yield7.3%Market Cap (USD) (M)6,408EV (USD) (M)13,334 There seem to be two weak links - RTS soup and snacks more broadly:Managementmade much of how the cooking from scratch portion of the soup business is holding up well,with condensed soup and broth continuing to grow from such at home cooking occasions.But there clearly is still the ongoing problem of ready to serve soup, particularly the Chunkybrand, which is still declining fairly rapidly. Management pointed out that the year-ago periodsaw particularly strong growth in RTS soup, and so this quarter’s weakness should not beextrapolated, and the company is seeing better trends in more recently data in 4Q:26. Management pointed to improvements in fresh bread supply chain execution thisquarter:The company has got through the execution challenges in fresh bread that wereoutlined last quarter. A cutback in promotional activity clearly weighed on consumptiongrowth this quarter but things are now getting back to normal. It was interesting to hear about the refocusing on the core of the Goldfish brand:Atthe investor day in 2024, previous management… (continued on next page) Investment Implications We rate CPB Underperform and lower our price target from $19 to $18 based onmaintaining our forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x and lowering our 12 - 24 month EBITDAestimate from $1,499m to $1,490m. DETAILS … (continued from previous) made much of the idea of “aging with former childhood consumers” by leading into spicier versionsof the brand that might appeal to teens and 20-somethings as they grow older. At the time, the claim that the brand was thebiggest brand for Gen Z was a major selling point. But it seems that this divergence away from Goldfish’s core of household withyounger children has not stood the test of time, and the plans is now to refocus back on the households with children core of thebrand. Meanwhile, leverage has increased from 3.8x net debt to EBITDA to 4.0x this time around, based on trailing 12 monthEBITDA:Management acknowledges that the biggest priority right now is to stabilize EBITDA, which it seems that companyhopes to do in FY27 through a combination of pricing and productivity improvement to offset the likely wave of freight/packaging/ag inflation that the management team currently expects to add 2 - 3% to underlying COGS growth of 3%. Ourconcern is that retailers will be disinclined to allow price increases through, particularly for brands that are not growing at orabove the retailer’s US comp store sales growth. As such, this upcoming inflation could lead to further margin compression andEBIT disappointments in FY27. Quarterly earnings mostly in-line with lowered consensus.Revenues of $2,366m were -0.7% below consensus estimates,with organic sales growth of -4.0% YoY (price +1% and volume/mix -5%), below consensus of -3.3%. This was a sequentialslowdown from the -3% OSG seen last quarter, where price was flat and volume/mix down by -3%. The adjusted gross marginof 27.7% was 13bp above consensus and down -240bp YoY—an improvement from the -265bp YoY seen last quarter. AdjustedEBIT of $274.0m came in 1.8% above consensus and down -27.7% YoY, while EPS of $0.50 was a 2c beat and down -36.4%YoY. FY guidance reaffirmed after being significantly lowered last quarter.Organic net sales are expected to decline between-2% and -1% (vs current consensus of -2.1%), adj. EBIT is expected to decline between -20% and -17% (vs current consensusof -19%), and adj. EPS is expected to decline between -26% and -23% (vs current consensus of -25.4%). At the midpoint, thisimplies 4Q26 OSG in the +LSD% range (vs current consensus of -0.4%), EBIT of $243m (vs current consensus of $244m), andEPS of $0.40 (vs current consensus of $0.41). EXHIBIT 1:CPB 3Q:26 Results Table Source: Company filings, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 2:CPB 3Q:26 Segmented Results Table Source: Company filings, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 3:FY26 Guidance Table APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institution