一条纪律化的智能转型和全球扩展之路

A disciplined route to intelligent transformation Maintain BUY.We attended Geely’s investor dayon 9 Jun 2026,where thecompanyshowcased its latest autonomous driving (AD) and smart cockpitfunctionalities.We are of the view that Geely has been catching up with leadingpeers in its tech transformation with all the R&D resources integrated. Geely hasalso been accelerating global expansion, especially in Europe, following its Target PriceHK$27.00Up/Downside45.4%Current PriceHK$18.57 China Auto Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk ◼Catching up in AD and smart cockpit.Weparticipated in an on-roaddemonstration ofa Zeekr8Xin Shenzhen, experiencing theG-ASD 4.0withtheH7 hardware and Super Evaagent,as it navigated complex urbanroadconditions.We are of the view that Geely has been catching up with leadingpeersin AD and smart cockpit functionalitieswith all the R&D resourcesintegrated now. The current AD version is based ontheone-stageend-to-end(E2E)framework, withplans to integratetheVision-Language-Action Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk ◼Driving global expansion via an asset-light model.WithitsYTDexportvolume beat, Geelycontinues toaccelerateits global expansion, especiallyin Europe.Leveraging itsNEV technologies and its parent company’s globalecosystem,Geely is positioned to establish partnerships with localautomakers, offering itsNEV architecture in exchangefor local production ◼2Q26earnings preview:corenet profit to rise 14% QoQ.We projectGeely’s 2Q26 revenue to rise 26% YoY with higher exports and better modelmix, which could also result in a GPM lift of 1.3ppts YoY to 18.4%, basedon our estimates. We expect SG&A and R&D combined ratio to narrow by0.8ppts YoY to 12.4% in 2Q26. That, along with our assumption of a forexgain of RMB700mn, leadsto our net profit forecast of RMB5.8bn, or a core ◼Earnings/Valuation.We maintain our FY26E sales volume forecast of3.5mn units withupgradedassumption for exports and high-end models.Therefore, we revise up our FY26E gross profit forecast by 5.8% and netprofit forecast by 8.5% to RMB22.7bn. We also raise our FY27/28E net profitestimates by 10.9%/9.6%, respectively. We maintain our BUY rating andtarget price of HK$27.00, based on 11x (prior 12x) our revised P/E, to reflect Source: FactSet Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflecthis or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15%to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors.CMBIGMrecommends that investors should independently evaluate particular investments or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction. NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the informati