尼日利亚：选定问题

NIGERIA SELECTED ISSUES June2026 This paperonNigeriawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund NIGERIA SELECTED ISSUES May7, 2026 ApprovedByThe African Prepared ByCecilia Melo Fernandes(MCM), Reginald Darius(AFR), andChris Stumphius(AFR).Joanna Delcambre (AFR)providededitorial support. CONTENTS INFLATION IN NIGERIA: A DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS3 A. Nigeria’s Inflation Over Time_________________________________________________________3B. Composition of Inflation_____________________________________________________________5C. Persistence___________________________________________________________________________8D. Diffusion_____________________________________________________________________________9 FIGURES 1. Headline, Core and Food Inflation, 2001-25__________________________________________32. Inflation and Naira/USD Exchange Rate______________________________________________53. Average Contributions to Inflation___________________________________________________64. Domestic and International Food Price Inflation_____________________________________75. Contributions to CPI Inflation________________________________________________________76. Headline Inflation Persistence, 2004-25______________________________________________9 NIGERIA’S SHIFT TO A FLOATING REGIME: INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATEPASS-THROUGH AND POLICY EFFECTIVENESS____________________________________12 A. Introduction_______________________________________________________________________12B. Interest Rate Pass-Through________________________________________________________15C. Conditional Exchange Rate Pass-Through__________________________________________17 FIGURES 1.Official and Parallel Exchange Rates, 2007–2025___________________________________________132. Monthly Exchange Rate Changes and Rolling Volatility____________________________________143. CBN’s Monetary Policy Corridor and Market Rates_________________________________________144. Interest Rates Co-Movements______________________________________________________________155. Contemporaneous Engle-Granger Cointegration Interest Rates Relationships_____________166. Hike vs. Cut Responses_____________________________________________________________________177. Baseline NIW-BVAR Impulse Responses for CPI and Exchange Rate________________________208. Conditional Exchange Rates Pass-Through by Shock Type_________________________________20 References____________________________________________________________________________________28 ANNEXES I. Monetary Policy Rate and Market Rates____________________________________________________24II.Interest Rate Pass-Through_________________________________________________________________25III. Bayesian VAR Framework and Identification Strategy______________________________________26 INFLATION IN NIGERIA: A DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS OF A.Nigeria’sInflationOverTime 1.Historically, inflation in Nigeria has been persistently high due to supply side shocks,deficit financing and large exchange rate depreciation.The early 2000s saw volatile, double-digitinflation due to food price shocks, exchange rate pressure, and fiscal dominance. From 2010–2016,inflation stabilized near 10 percent thanks to managed exchange rates and periods of improvedmacroeconomic stability. This phase ended with the 2016 oil price shock and associated exchangerate adjustment, which triggered a renewed rise in inflation and a shift towardshigher persistence.Inflation further accelerated during 2020–22 amidthe COVIDpandemic disruptions and loose NIGERIA 2.In 2025, Nigeria rebased its consumer price index (CPI) to reflect updated householdconsumption patterns.This resultedin significant changes to the composition and weights of theinflation basket.Most notably, the weight of food declined sharply—from over 50 percent prior tothe rebasing to about 28 percent—while the weights of non-food components such as housing,transport, and other services increased. Therebasing had a mechanical effect on measured inflation,contributing to a downward shift in headline inflation in 2025, particularly through lower measured 3.The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has taken decisive steps to tame inflation, 2024.Following the exchange rate adjustment in 2023, the CBN) significantly tightened themonetary policy stance. The monetary policy committee of the CBN increased the monetary policyrate (MPR) increased cumulatively by over 800 basis points, from 18.5 percentin February of 2024to management tools. The cash reserve ratio (CRR) was raised sharply to 50 percent, absorbing excessliquidity in the ban