资本支出超级周期的定价

As AI investment scales to levels rivaling the capexsupercycles of the 1990s and 2000s, we highlight EV/EBITDAas a valuation metric that gains signal strength over P/E,when evaluating medium-term investment horizons thatcoincide with elevated capex. U.S. Equity StrategyVenu Krishna, CFA+1 212 526 7328venu.krishna@barclays.comBCI, US Rex Feng+ 1 212 526 6114rex.feng@barclays.comBCI, US THE 2026 EXTEL SURVEY IS NOW OPEN Riddhiman Dass+1 212 526 0850riddhiman.dass@barclays.comBCI, US Support our industry-leading analysts with 5-Starvotes in this year’s Extel All-America ResearchSurvey Tianqi Feng+1 212 526 9179tianqi.feng@barclays.comBCI, US View Analysts Vote Now The Extel survey is important to our team and to Barclays! We would greatly appreciate your★★★★★5-star vote in the Equity-Linked Strategies and Portfolio Strategy categories. Key Points & Highlights •Capex finds another gear.Aggregate S&P 500 capex is projected to grow 40% Y/Y in 2026 andis on track to absorb roughly 50% of operating cash flows, levels that recall the supercycles ofthe 1990s and 2000s. Tech is dead center with TMT capex as a share of total S&P 500 capexprojected to approach 50% this year, a step change even relative to the late-2010s publiccloud buildout. History suggests that when capex intensity reaches these levels, even goodinvestment can overshoot, raising the question of how much to pay for marginal return oninvested capital. •EV/EBITDA gains signal strength over medium-term horizons when capex is elevated.Over the last 30 years, EV/EBITDA exhibited a stronger linear relationship with S&P 500forward 3Y total return (based on quintile sorting of the metric and cheap-expensive spread)when compared to P/E, during periods of high capex. This supports the intuitive framing thatEV/EBITDA more closely reflects what investors are paying for the operating asset base, overan investment horizon that better aligns with a typical capex cycle. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 7.Completed: 04-Jun-26, 18:08 GMTReleased: 05-Jun-26, 04:10 GMTRestricted - External •We remain constructive near-term.This valuation signal has limited timing power overshorter periods, and it's worth noting that currently-elevated EV/EBITDA is being shaped asmuch by the beneficiaries of AI capex as by the companies undertaking the spending itself.Meanwhile, the NTM earnings backdrop remains supportive, particularly within the broaderTech complex. Taken together, elevated capex and EV/EBITDA argue for investors with amulti-year horizon to look at entry points with greater selectivity, while the combination ofrising EPS estimates and strong secular growth leaves the near-term setup constructive. S&P 500 capex outlook vs. history S&P 500 capex is on track to absorb roughly 50% of operating cash flows in 2026, a level thatplaces this cycle squarely alongside prior capex supercycles like the mid-to-late 1990s telecom/internet buildout and the mid-2000s energy and housing investment boom. While the 1990sfeatured record equipment spending by telecom carriers and OEMs, and the mid-2000s cyclewas broader and more industrial in nature, in both cases capex ultimately proved bothproductivity-enhancing and value-destructive, with long-datedpayoffsthat followed a period ofpainful consolidation. What distinguishes the current cycle is not simply its scale, but its concentration. Aggregate S&P500 capex is expected to grow roughly 40% Y/Y, the fastest pace in at least 35 years, yet the bulkof that growth is coming from Communication Services, Tech and Discretionary;effectivelytheAI hyperscalers, chipmakers, and their immediate supply chains. TMT capex as a share of totalS&P 500 capex is projected to approach 50% this year, a step change even relative to thelate-2010s public cloud buildout. History suggests that when capex intensity reaches theselevels, even good investment can overshoot, raising the question of how much to pay formarginal return on invested capital. EV/EBITDA as a check against P/E during elevatedcapex When capex intensity rises, valuation signals can migrate up the income statement as P/Ebecomes vulnerable to nonlinear distortions from leverage, tax shields, and depreciationpolicies. EV/EBITDA has its own limitations but can be useful as a check against P/E, as it moredirectly reflects what investors are paying for the operating asset base. Given the multi-yeartimeline typical of a capex supercycle, EV/EBITDA can also align better with returns at acomparable horizon by focusing on enterprise-level metrics (including financing of the capex). We find some