2026年中东冲突对全球农业食品的影响——对能源和化肥贸易及粮食安全的影响

INFORMATION NOTE GLOBAL AGRIFOODIMPLICATIONS OF THE 2026CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST KEY MESSAGES §The escalation of conflict in the Islamic Republic of Iranand the Middle East has sharply increased risks toglobal energy, fertilizer, and agrifood systems. Impacts on energy and fertilizer trade,and food security §The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil, gas,and fertilizers, has already seen disruptions that areraising energy and agricultural input costs worldwide. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY §Fertilizer shortages and higher energy prices threatencrop yields, while remittance losses and potentialshifts to biofuel production could amplify food pricevolatility, particularly in Africa, Asia, and otherimport-dependent regions. 1.The conflict that erupted in the Persian Gulf inFebruary2026 has generated a major shock toglobal energy, fertilizer, andagrifood systems.Acentral factor is the disruption of trade throughthe Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridorlinking Gulf energy producers with global markets.Under normal conditions, the strait carries around20 million barrels of crude oil and refined productsper day—roughly one-quarter of global seaborneoil—along with significant volumes ofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)and fertilizer exports. §Immediate measures such as developing alternativetrade routes, strengthening market monitoring,providing financial support for farmers, and offeringtargeted aid for vulnerable countries are needed tostabilize supply chains. §Longer-term strategies should focus on domesticagriculture, sustainable fertilizer production, renewableenergy, and structural adjustments, while diplomaticefforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain essentialto safeguard global energy and food security. 2.Within days of the conflict, tanker traffic throughthe strait collapsed by more than 90 percent,severely restricting shipments. This disruptionrapidly transmitted volatility to global energymarkets and the global agrifood system. 3.The Persian Gulf plays a central role in the global energy system. Countries in the region, includingBahrain, Iraq,theIslamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Qatar,Saudi Arabia,Oman andthe United ArabEmirates, account for a large share of global oil and gas exports. Approximately one fifth of globalLNGexports originate in the Gulf. The region is also a key supplier of refined fuels such asliquefiedpetroleumgas(LPG),diesel and jet fuel.4.As maritime risks increased and insurance costs surged, shipping activity through the Strait ofHormuz dropped sharply, forcing producers to reduce output. By early March,export volumesthrough the corridor had fallen to less than 10 percent of pre-conflict levels, leaving an estimated10million barrels per day of oil production temporarily shut inbecause ofexport constraints.5.Global markets reacted immediately. Oil prices rose rapidly as traders incorporated a substantialgeopolitical risk premium to market expectations. Brent crude prices increased by about20–35percent in the first days of the conflict, briefly reaching aroundUSD115–120 per barrel,whileUSbenchmark prices rose aboveUSD100 per barrel.6.Natural gas markets experienced even stronger movements, particularly in Europe, wherebenchmark prices increased by roughly 50–75 percent during the first weeks of the crisis. Thesedevelopments have tightened global energy markets and increased costs across transportation,industry, and agriculture.7.Governments and international institutions have attempted to stabilize markets. On 11 March 2026the International Energy Agencyannounced a coordinated release of approximately 400 millionbarrels from strategic petroleum reserves, the largest emergency stock release in its history. Whilethe announcement helped calm markets, the volume released represents only about 20 days ofnormal Gulf oil supply. This underscores the limited capacity of emergency reserves to offsetprolonged disruptions should the conflict persist.8.Beyond energy, the Persian Gulf is also a major hub for global fertilizer production and exports.Countries such asthe Islamic Republic of Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman are among the world’sleading exporters of nitrogen fertilizers, including urea and ammonia. In recent years the region hasaccounted for roughly 30–35 percent of global urea exports and around 20–30 percent of ammoniaexports. Overall,up to30 percent of internationally traded fertilizers normally transit the Strait ofHormuz. Withmaritime traffic severely disrupted and several production facilities damaged ortemporarily closed due to security concerns, fertilizer supply chains have been heavily affected.Production cuts and shipping constraints have stalled an estimated 3–4 million tonnes of fertilizertrade per month.9.Unlike oil, the fertilizer sector does not have internationally coordinated strategic reserves, makingsupply disruptions more difficult to manage. Prices have already increased significantly. In earlyMarch,Middle East granular urea prices rose by near