中央银行家对气候变化和自然退化的看法

www.ecb.europa.eu ©Member of the Executive Board of the ECB andVice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB Outline Climate-relatedrisks Relevance for central banks Climate change already poses material risks to theEU economy •Direct losses to infrastructure andassets estimated atEUR 822billionduring 1980 - 2024 in the •In August 2023 Slovenia was hitbyintense floods thathave causeddirect damages estimated equal to16% of GDP •Valencia (Spain) was hit by severefloods in 2024, regional wealth lossamounted to more than€17 “Fossilflation” has consequences for inflation andmonetary policy •Energy transition hasbecome more urgentasEurope’s energydependence is acritical •Russia’s invasion ofUkraine pushed euroarea inflationup to10.6%in October 2022, The fossil fuel price crisis is an extra push towardsrenewable energy transition •Short-term effects of the war inIran are alreadylarger thanduring the three previousenergy crises combined(1973, 1979 and 2022) Transmission of climate risks Relevance of climate risks for the ECB Climate change affects thevalue and risk profile ofassets held on theEurosystem’s balance Climate change and policiesaffect the outlook for pricestabilitythrough theirimpact on macroeconomic Euro area financialinstitutions are exposed totransitionandphysicalrisk(via loans andsecurities) throughfirms, The ECB addresses climate change in several areas Monetary policy Economic analysis and data •Tilting ofcorporate bond holdings•Climate risk incollateral framework•Push for more transparency incredit •Integrate climate change in staffprojectionsand risk assessments•Climate-relatedstatistical indicators Financial stability Banking supervision •Guideon climate-related and environmentalrisks Economy-wideclimate stress testsDeveloping NGFSclimate scenarios Nature-relatedrisks Expanding the scope fromclimate to environmental risks Definitions of nature and ecosystem services The climate-nature nexus Nature and climate related risks arestronglyinterconnected. A controlled globalwarming andmitigation of climatechange can helppreserve ecosystems •Increasing temperatures andextreme climate events can causenature degradation•Policies aimed at mitigating climatechange can negatively impactnature Illustration of observed nature-related economicshocks From 4.2 mln companies in the Euro area, around 3mln are highly dependent on ecosystem services 75% of banks’ corporate loans are to companies thatare highly dependent on nature Considering more than€ 4.5 tnincorporate loans to around4.2 mlnNFCsin the euro area: •75% of all loan exposures(around € 3.1 tn) are towardshighly dependent borrowers •Differences between countries aremoderated by theindirect Moving from dependency to risk analysis Water-related ecosystems are putting the highest risk on sectoral economicoutput in the EU Water-related risks are the highest for the euro area Water related ecosystem services aremost material for euro area •1-in-100 year drought can put24% of euro area economic Share of national economic output at risk from surface waterscarcity under a 1-in-100 year drought event (Ceglar et al.,Occasional Paper) High risks from water scarcity for economic output Sectoral distribution of nature value-at-risk for asurface-water provision shock •Agriculture most affectedinterms ofrelative sectorallosses,withpotential output manufacturing,mining, watersupply, construction, Water-related risks could become material sources ofrisks for banks Share of loans at risk from water scarcity and waterquality degradation in the euro area by borrower sector •Highest concentrations of loans at riskfromwater scarcityinreal estate •Water qualityis more relevant formanufacturing, mining and food •Toassess the resilience of banks’credit portfolios, the ECB will soonpublish analytical research on theimpact of nature degradationon Strengthening banks’ capacitiesto manage risks The ECB has followed a multi-year programmeto build capacity in the banking sector ECB has updated two major publications on goodpractices to support the industry The ECB measures progresses in banks C&E riskmanagement capabilities Progress 2021-2022 practices. However,not depicted on the chart are weaknesses in termsof e.g. comprehensiveness, effectivenessand granularity of Idiosyncratic shortcomings are widespreadand still followedup on. Litigation risks Climate/nature litigation – agrowing risk for the financial Climate litigation: increasing relevance for centralbanks and supervisors •UN: “Cases that raisematerialissuesof law or fact relating toclimate changemitigation,adaptationor thescienceof •NGFS and central banks startedtoinclude litigation risksin their •NGFS Experts’ Network onLegal Issues(2021,2023,2024)•NGFS Workstream onSupervision(2023) Climate litigation against states Consequences for the financial system•Transition risks– more ambitious state action •Delaying or preventingfossil fuel projects, revokin