KROLL南方共同市场协议：概述和主要影响（英）

EU-MercosurPartnershipAgreement Insights26 Years in the MakingMay 2026 Executive Summary Key Findingsat a Glance More Than 13% Growth in Brazil’s Export by 2038 World's Largest Free Trade Agreement (FTA) by Population After 26 years in the making, it is implemented since May1, 2026.720 million consumers across 32 countries, combined GDPof USD 24 trillion—the biggest FTA ever created. Brazilian exports to the EU projected to grow 13% in total, withindustrial exports rising 26% by 2038 upon full implementation. EUR 4 Billion/Year Saved by EU Firms Geopolitical Counterweight to U.S. Administration Elimination of up to 35% automotive tariffs, 20% machinerytariffs and 14% pharma tariffs saves EU companies overEUR 4billion annually. The agreement is as much a geopolitical statement as a tradeinstrument—a direct counterpoint to the U.S.-led tariff waveand Chinese expansion in Latin America. According to the Ethics & Compliance Initiative (ECI),Critical Minerals Access Secured ECJ Legal Challenge Pending nearly50%of employees globally believe thattheirorganisation will not protect them from retaliationMercosur supplies 82% of EU's niobium—vital to the Green Deal.The agreement locks in sustainable access to rare earths andlithium. European Parliament referred the deal to the European Court ofJustice. If ruled against, provisional application may be suspended. kroll.comSources: European Commission · EU Council · Reuters · Associated Press · Kroll Analysis Trade Relationshipat a Glance EU–Mercosur Bilateral Trade Data—2024 Trade Relationshipat a Glance Mercosur and EU Countries Key Figures Tariff Architecture Key Tariff Changes—Before and After the Agreement The agreement eliminates tariffs on more than 90% of bilateral trade over a 10-to 15-year phase-in period. Day 1 sees approximately 5,000product lines drop to zero duty. The structure is complementary: The EU gains access for manufactured goods while Mercosur gainsagriculturalmarket access under managed quotas. Impact on Brazil Advantages and Disadvantages ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES Agricultural Market Access Industrial Competition •Beef: 99,000t at 7.5% (vs ~40%). Poultry:180,000t duty-free. Premium EU pricing forBrazilian exporters (BRF, JBS, Marfrig). •EU cars, machinery, pharma enter at 0% tariff—pressuring domestic manufacturers to upgradeor consolidate. FDI and Technology Transfer Compliance Costs •Greater predictability incentivises Europeaninvestment in Brazil's renewable energy,technology and infrastructure. Cheaper Industrial Inputs •Zero tariffs on EU machinery, chemicals andpharma inputs lower production costs acrossBrazilian industry. •Beef = 1.5% of EU production. Poultry = 1.3%.Immediate commercial upside is constrained byquota caps. Geopolitical Diversification •Leverage against U.S. administration tariffsCritical Minerals Value•Brazil's niobium, lithium and rare earths gainstrategic importance—EU imports 82% ofniobium from Mercosur. Brazil Export Growth Projections by 2038 (%) Impact on Brazil Brazil Key Partners (2025) Impact on the EU Advantages and Disadvantages ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES Automotive and Industrial Exports Pressure on EU Farmers •Elimination of 35% car tariff opens Mercosur's295 million consumers to EU automakers (BMW,VW, Mercedes). EUR 4billion/year in tariffsavings across all sectors. •French, Irish and Polish beef, poultry and sugarproducers fear competitive pressure fromcheaper Mercosur imports, even under quotacaps. Critical Raw Materials Security Regulatory Standard Gaps •82% of EU's niobium from Mercosur. Preferentialaccess to lithium, manganese and rare earths—vital to the Green Deal and digital transition. •Mercosur permits pesticides banned in the EU.Enforcement of import standards is costly andraises food safety concerns. Agricultural Food Export Growth Legal and Political Risk •ECJ referral by EU Parliament could suspendprovisional application if ruled against—multiyear uncertainty for businesses. •EU agriculture food exports to Mercosurexpected to increase by ~50%. Wine, olive oil,spirits and cheese gain access to 295 millionconsumers. Modest GDP Gain Geopolitical Counterweight •EU long-run GDP gain only +0.1%. Franceestimates +0.05% by 2040—meaningagricultural costs may outweigh benefits forsome member states. •Extends EU strategic influence in Latin America.Counters U.S. unilateralism and Chineseexpansion in the region. Geographical Indications Deforestation Concerns •Champagne, Parmigiano Reggiano, Prosciutto—EU GIs protected in Mercosur markets. IPR-intensive industries = 47% of EU GDP. •Risk that increased agricultural trade acceleratesAmazon deforestation—potentially conflictingwith the EU's own Deforestation Regulation. Key Economic Figures GDP Projections, Export Growth, and Savings +0.1%EU GDP (Long-Run) Sector Spotlight—Most Impacted Industries Key sectors on both sides of the Atlantic most affected by the agreement's tariff changes and quo