好市多（COST）2026年第三季度：汽油推动短期上行，长期逻辑不变

Price Target 1,194.00 USD(1,192.00OLD) Costco (COST) 3Q26: Gas fuels near-term upside while LT thesisintact Costco delivered a small beat in 3Q26. Comp sales grew by +9.8% in Q3 (vs. cons.+7.8%), with +2.4% traffic growth and +7.3% ticket growth. By region ex gas/FX, US ledcomp sales growth at +6.8%, followed by Canada at +6.2%, and Other International at+5.9%. Gross margin declined by -20bps YoY due to the gas inflation impact and was +1bpsex gas. EPS of $4.93 was a 2c beat. Costco’s membership fee income grew by 10.7%, driven by +4.0% growth in paidmembers, which is a deceleration from 4.7% last quarter and 6-7% in prior years. As the USmarket becomes more saturated, we will closely monitor the membership growth, althoughmembership fee income (MFI) growth remains healthy at 7% ex price increase and FX.Encouragingly, the membership renewal rate increased slightly to 92.2% in the US andCanada (+10bps sequentially) and remained flat worldwide at 89.7%. Should we see anyweakness in MFI growth in the near term, we expect it to be offset by other levers includingretail media growth. Over the medium to long term, we expect international expansion tosustain MFI growth at ~7%. We continue to believe that COST is the highest quality company in our coverage, withmultiple decades of global warehouse expansion opportunities ahead. Although the stockhas rebounded from a recent trough, our LT DCF continues to suggest 20%+ potentialupside. In terms of catalysts, the gas inflation is helping drive traffic, while Costco is startingto lap easier comps and about to cycle the 2023 Groupon campaign’s impact on renewalrate. Given its strong cash position, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a special dividend. Investment Implications We rate COST Outperform with a PT of $1,194.00. DETAILS ESTIMATES AND PT CHANGES We adjust our estimates after earnings to update our fuel and FX impact estimates, and adjust our gross margin and SG&A rateassumptions accordingly. We also reduce our store unit growth expectations for FY27. This has the effect of changing our FY26EPS estimate to $20.64 (prior: $21.25) and our FY27 estimate to $23.30 (prior: $24.18). We arrive at our new $1,194 target price (prior: $1,192) using an unchanged P/E multiple of 48.0x against our forward Q5-Q8EPS estimate of $24.87 (prior: $24.84), as we roll our model. Q3 DETAIL In Q3, COST performed well on the top line.COST grew net sales by 11.6% to $69.15B (vs. consensus of $68.34B). Compsales ex fuel/FX grew by +6.6% (vs. consensus of +6.7%), driven by +2.4% traffic growth and +4.2% ticket growth. Digital sales grew by +20.8%, led by sales growth in pharmacy, gold and jewelry, toys, small electrics, and housewares. COST isstarting to explore opportunities in retail media and marketplace, although it is still too early stage to move the needle. Membership incomeof $1,373M came in +1.1% above expectations. It grew by 10.7%, driven by +4.1% growth in paidmembers (now 82.9M). Renewal rates are steady at 89.7% worldwide (vs. 89.7% in 2Q26) and increased slightly to 92.2% inthe US and Canada (vs. 92.1% last quarter). Gross marginwas up -21bps YoY at 11.04% (-10bps vs. consensus). Core on core margins decreased by -9bps.EBIT marginwas flat YoY at 4.1% (in line with consensus).EPSof $4.93 was a 2c beat. Costco opened 4netnew warehousesin Q3 - 1 in Canada, and 3 in the US. Management expects to open 26 warehousestotal in FY26 (down 2 - of which 1 fewer in US, and 1 fewer in Other International), which implies 12 in Q4. 11 of these are to beopened in the US. APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Costco Wholesale Corp We set a $1,194 target price using a P/E multiple of 48.0x against our forward Q5-Q8 EPS estimate of $24.87. RI