1Q26收益不及预期；由于 mainland 账户退出进行盈利调整，目标价格降至 145 美元

Futu Holdings (FUTU US) to US$145 on earningsrevision for exit of mainlandaccounts 1Q26earnings missed;TP cut to US$145 onearnings revision for exit of mainland accounts Futu release 1Q26 resultswith totalrevenue/non-GAAP net profit down 9%/73% QoQto HK$5.86bn/HK$0.92bn, falling short of our estimates of HK$6.1bn/3.2bn (link). 1Qtopline missed our estimate by 4%, due to slower-than-expected growth in brokeragecommissionincome, down 4.6% QoQ (CMBI est: +4.1%) weighed by a lower blendedcommission rate, and other income, down 10.5% QoQ (CMBI est:-0.2%).1Q NPATdeclined 75%QoQ,largely due to the one-off CSRC-proposed penalties ofRMB1.85bnand a lower-than-expected operating income.Excluding theimpactofpenalties, NPAT would be HK$2.92bn, down 13% QoQ.Client assets modestly fell1.1% QoQ to HK$1.22tn in 1Q26, as robust net asset inflowswerelargely offset bymark-to-market losses onclients’ US/HK equity holdings. Total funded accounts grewon track to 3.59mn in 1Q26, up 6.7% QoQ, in line with our expectation, with 225k newpaying clients tracking 28.1% of annual new client acquisition target. Trading volumerose4.4% QoQ to HK$4.15tn, mainly supported by HK stocks’ turnover growth (+23%QoQ). Blended commission rate landedshort of our expectationat6.4bps (vs. 4Q25: Target PriceUS$145.00(Previous TPUS$228.00)Up/Downside38.2%Current PriceUS$104.91 China Financials Nika MA(852) 3900 0805nikama@cmbi.com.hk 1Q26keymetrics: 1) Softening1Q topline/bottom-line:Total revenuewasHK$5.86bn, down 9%QoQand was 4%below our estimate.GAAP/Non-GAAP net income wasHK$0.85bn/HK$0.92bn, down 75%/73% QoQ due to the one-off impact of CSRC-proposed penalties of RMB1.85bn.Excluding this, theGAAP/Non-GAAPbottom-line would be HK$2.9bn/HK$3.0bn, down 13%/13% QoQ, and was7% below ourestimates (table). 1Q topline was dragged by a sequential decline in each lineof 2) Total/new funded accounts:225k new funded accountswereadded in 1Q26,down 4% QoQ, tracking 28.1% of annual new client acquisition target. Total fundedaccounts reached 3.59mn, up 6.7%QoQ, with a broad-based strength seen acrossall markets despite heightened stock market volatilities. Funded accounts from theex-Greater China markets sequentiallyedged upto a mix of>55%.As of1Q26,mainland accounts made up 13%of total funded accounts,which generated 17%of total AUM and ~20% of revenue. We expect the mainland contribution to Auditor: PwC Related reports: 1. Futu Holdings (FUTU US)-1Q26preview: softer earnings affected byinterestincome;net asset inflows 2.Futu Holdings(FUTU US)-4Qrobustgrowth in-line;geographicdiversificationsawsequentialimprovement, Mar 16, 2026 3) Client AUM:Clientassetsmodestly fell 1.1% QoQ to HK$1.22tn, 2% below ourestimate, driven by strong momentum in net asset inflowsbutpartially offset bymark-to-marketlosses on clients’ HK/US stockholdings. HK and SG were the twolargest contributing markets forclients’asset inflows,andmgmt. believesthe AUM 3.Futu Holdings (FUTU US)-4Q25Preview:Resilient key metrics withmodestsequentialgrowthamidmarket turbulence, Mar9, 2026 4) Trading volume& blended commission rate:1Qtotal trading volume wasHK$4.15tn, up 4.4% QoQ/29.2% YoY. US/HK stock turnover was HK$3tn/1tn,broadly flat/up 23% QoQ (72%/24% mix). Trading velocity was 15.8x in 1Q26 (vs.4Q25: 15.0x). Blended commission yield dropped to 6.4bps in 1Q26, due to strongcash equitiestrading activity and higher-priced US stocks and options. Brokerage 4.Futu Holdings(FUTU US)-3Qearningsa strong beat,driven byresilientnet asset inflows and NII 5.FutuHoldings(FUTUUS)-Marketing feedback: short-term viewsmixed; 3Q EPS upside to reinforcelong-term convictions, Oct 28, 2025 5) Interest income fellbyteensQoQas expected.Interest incomedeclined 13%QoQ to HK$2.65bn in 1Q26, due to the decease from idle cash and securities lending,partially offset by the increase in margin financing. Interest income fromidle cash felldue toa)arepricing effect after the Fed pivot in Dec 225;and b)reduced average daily cash balanceamid a strong bottom-fishing sentiment.Interest income from securities lending slid due to easing demand for short sellingofUS stocks,and anotable decline in securities borrowingyield.Interest income 6.FutuHoldings(FUTUUS)-Pioneered one-stop financial servicesplatformtorideoncrypto 6)Product pipeline acceleration:1)Moomoo US to launch predication market toUS retail investors soon, as license and relevant infrastructurearebeing built; 2) Mgmt.’s2Q-to-datetrendupdate& FY26E outlook:1) New funded accounts:expectthe metrictoremainstable QoQ,with confidenceto achievethe 800k full-year new client acquisition target. 2) Client assets:netasset inflowssaw short-term disruptionsfollowing the Chinacross-border enforcement, but mgmt. expectsthe overall impact to be manageable. 3) Interest income:stabilized in 2Q-to-date; mgmt. estimatedit to beflattenedQoQ. 4) Moomoo MY:scaled up with atargettoachievebreakevenoverthe next 6-12months. 5)Overseas expansion:newmarket entry progress on tra