建设未来输电网络 应对供应链挑战的策略

Building the Future Strategies to navigate supply INTERNATIONAL ENERGY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy, IEAMember IEAAssociation AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFrance ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgypt This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of The EuropeanCommission also Abstract Theurgency to expand and modernise the electricity transmission network Thisreport explores the evolving landscape of investment in electricitytransmissionnetworks and key trends related to the supply chain of keycomponents.Based on a survey of industry stakeholders in 2024 by the Building on the analysisElectricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions, this report identifies actionable strategies to address challenges related to the supplychain for grid infrastructure, with a focus on transmission lines with voltages thatexceed 66 kilovolts. It highlights growing constraints in the supply chain, the need Thisdocument was developed under the Regulatory Energy TransitionAccelerator (RETA) initiative, which aims to enhance the capacity of regulators to Acknowledgements, contributors The study was prepared by the Energy Investment Unit (EIU) in the Directorate ofthe Office of the Chief Energy Economist (OCEE) in cooperation with other The principal author of this report is Alana Rawlins Bilbao, Energy InvestmentAnalyst, who designed and directed the report together with Tim Gould, ChiefEnergy Economist. Other valuable contributions were made by Esra BozkirBroekman, Michael Drtil, Musa Erdogan, Eric Fabozzi, Zoe Hemez, Pablo Hevia- Debra Justus provided copy-editing for the report. Thanks goes to the IEA’sCommunications and Digital Office for their help in producing the report andwebsite materials, particularly to Jethro Mullen, Poeli Bojorquez, Astrid Dumond, This report benefited greatly from stakeholder discussions from key experts: Harrison S. SunguAymeric AndreMichael YongMichal KawalecYann FromontVijay ShindeSyuuji MayamaGavin KnottUlrik StridbækEgehan GürbüzLuca PellizzariKETRACONexansNKTPolskie Sieci ElektroenergetyczneSchneider ElectricSiemens EnergySumitomo ElectricOfgemØrstedTEİAŞTerna Table of contents Executive summary................................................................................................................. 7Chapter 1: Grids in the Age of Electricity.............................................................................. 11Transmission grids as the key to clean, electrified and secure energy systems.............. 11The pressing need to modernise aging infrastructure while driving expansion................ 12The role of transmission in clean energy transitions......................................................... 14Chapter 2: Transmission supply chains under strain ........................................................... 19The surge in global demand for transmission capacity is shaping the supply chainlandscape .......................................................................................................................... 19Increasing prices for key components............................................................................... 24Rising lead times and record-high order backlogs............................................................ 27 Executive summary Invest in grids today or face gridlock tomorrow Expanding and modernising transmission grids is essential for a secure,affordable and sustainable energy system. Analysis from the International Energy Agency has repeatedly highlighted the crucial role of electricity grids, notably in the comprehensive 2023 reportElectricity Grids and Secure EnergyTransitions.The importance of this issue is underscored further by theaccelerating pace of demand growth for power as the world enters an Age ofElectricity. Thelatest IEA near-term forecastis for global electricity consumption Around1.5 million kilometres of new transmission lines have been builtworldwideover the last decade, but inadequate transmission remains amajor constraint on power system development, electrification and energysecurity. Among other issues, grid infrastructure has struggled to keep pace with the rate at which new renewable sources are entering the system. This mismatchhas led to delays in project deployment and increased financial uncertainty: in2024, the IEA tracked1 650 GW of solar and wind projectsin advanced stages of A rise in transmission spending is putting the spotlighton bottlenecks in supply chains Recognising the urgency, investment in transmission has started to pick upas many countries make grid infrastructure a key priority in their nationalenergy plans. Europe, the United States, China, India, and parts of Latin America patterns, with advanced eco