钢铁：美国中厚板及热轧卷板价格持续上涨，国内热轧卷板价格走弱

Steel SpreadTracker US plate and HRC prices continue torise, Chinese HRC softens Research Analyst Therecent dynamics intheMiddle East have started to weighon sentiment and a +41-44-227-3377Liam Fitzpatrick negative impact on demand remains the main concern in the near term.Nevertheless,WesternpricesandmarginshavebeenfirmsofarandtheEU'splansfora significant step-up intrade protection should ultimately supporta sustainedreboundinEuropeanspreads,whiletheimpactfromCBAMaddstothat.Hence,wemaintainourconstructiveviewonthesector.WepublishedourtakeonthelatestEU policy development last week (link). Our top picks in carbon steel are:Voestalpine(VOES.Vl;Buy;EUR47.36;TP:EUR57),which remains the most solidequitystorybasedonsteadyFCFgeneration(despitepeakdecarbcapex),self-helpandanundervalued rail-infrastructurebusiness;andthyssenkrupp(TKAG.DE,Buy;EUR11.39;TP:EUR14.50)on possible catalysts and policytailwinds in steel.Werecentlyupgradedthestock (link).In stainless steel, wepreferAcerinox (ACX.MC;Buy;EUR15.54;TP:EUR16),basedon itsexposuretotheattractiveUSmarketandits solidcashreturns.We also continuetolikeAperam(APAM.AS;Buy;EUR50.90;TP:EUR65),basedonitsreversionpotentialandorganicgrowthprospects,coupledwith its strong mid-cycle FCF-generating ability and shareholder returns. Research Analyst+44-20-754-13233Cody Hayden Research Analyst+44-20-754-13230 Figure1:HRCprices NorthernEuropeanHRCprices stableLast week, indications for northern European HRC prices were up EUR2/t to the EUR680-695/t range(upUSD3/tinUSDtermstoUSD795-805/t).SouthernEuropeanpricesweredownEUR8/ttotheEUR675-685/trange(downUSD9/ttoUSD785-795/t).The BOF price spread for German HRC vs the cost of key rawmaterialshas increased toUSD231/t (vs USD227/t last week),which is stillsignificantly above mid-cycle levels. Marginal players remain around mid-cyclelevels. rce : CRU, Argus Media Figure2:Rawmaterialprices SteelSteelSpreadTracker Last week,US HRC prices were upUSD13/t to the USD1190-1205/t range, and market sentiment remains strong on theback of solid lead times and domesticpricing discipline.Pricesare upUSD196/tthisyear.TheBOF price spreadvsthe costofkey rawmaterials stands atUSD638/t (up USD15/t vs the previous week).TheEAFspread (HRCvsscrap)standsatUSD616/t(upUSD13/tvsthepreviousweek)Afterfreshpricehikes,USplatepriceswereupUSD13/ttotheUSD1,350-1,365/trange and prices are currentlyup~USD266/t in2026. Chinesedomestic rebarpriceswereupRMB33/ttoRMB3,331/t,whileHRCprices weredownRMB72/ttoRMB3,413/t.Rebarpriceshave increasedRMB125/toverthe pastthreemonths,while HRC prices have increased RMB168/t.ChineseHRCexport prices stand at USD500-510/t (down USD5/t vs last week).Consideringtransport costs and the 50%S232duty,this implies a USparitypriceof USD910-930/t. IronorepricesdownIronore(62%Fe)pricesweredownUSD2/ttotheUSD108-110/trangelastweek. Coal priceswerestableattheUSD235-245/trange.USscrapprices were stableatthe USD370-380/t range,while European scrap prices weredown USD1/t to theUSD360-375/trange. SteelSteel SpreadTracker Deutsche Bank Steel &Mining team Bastian Synagowitz (+41) 44 227 3377bastian.synagowitz@db.com (+44) 207 541 3233liam.fitzpatrick@db.com (+44) 207 541 3230cody.hayden@db.comUSA +19046452360corinne.blanchard@db.comSpecialty sales Alexander-J Butler+(44) 207 541 5550Alexander-j.butler@db.com Steel priceesummary Industryvaluationandrisks Weusevariousmethodologiestovalue the steel companiesunderourcoverage-from a DCF-based valuation to a normalised earnings approach and a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis. Key industry risks include (1) global economic growth notwhich could result in an erosion of, or a boost to, earnings; (3)higher/lower rawmaterial and other operating costs, which could limit/help earnings growth; (4)political influence of governments on the steel trade; (5) expansion projects failingtoprogressas expected; and (6)M&Avaluation and integration risks. SteelSteel Spread Tracker Spreads and cash costs SteelSteel SpreadTracker SteelSteelSpreadTracker Primary steel-making rawmaterial prices SteelSteelSpreadTracker Regional spreads and tradestatistics SteelSteel SpreadTracker We entered anewquotaperiodon1April 2026.Thebalancefromtheprevious quarter was rolled overtwo weeks back.Hence,current balances for all thecategoriesarewithrespecttoadjustednumberswithpreviousbalanceswhereverapplicable.Asof22May2026,somecategorieshaveseen significantmaterialinflowwith61%of HRsheet,23%ofCR,56-65%ofcoated sheetand49%ofplatequotas already utilised.The entire country specific quarterly quota for Indian andTurkishHRCandChinesecoatedsheet(4b)isexhaustedwhile92%oftheS.Koreancoatedsheet(4a)quotahasalsobeenused.Overall,thequotausageremainslowerthanprevious quarters inmost of the categories.The EuropeanCommissionhasannounceditsproposalforthenewtradeprotectionregime,whichisencouraging.All eyes will nowbe on the European Parliament final decision in May. SteelSteel SpreadTracker SteelSteel SpreadTracker SteelSteel Spre