热轧卷板市场周报：终端需求放缓，热卷期价承压走弱

终端需求放缓，热卷期价承压走弱「2023.04.14」作者：许方莉期货投资咨询证号：Z0017638热轧卷板市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热卷期价重心下移。由于炉料走弱，炼钢成本下移对钢价支撑减弱，终端需求表现一般，库存量增加，表观消费量下滑，市场情绪相对悲观。后市展望：供应端，热卷周度产量由增转降，钢价持续下调，开工率有所下滑，但产能利用率维持在80%上方。需求端，热卷库存总量由降转增，需求表现一般，贸易商分歧较大，主动囤货意愿不高。整体上，炉料走弱及炼钢成本下移或继续拖累热卷期价。操作上建议，HC2310合约考虑于4000-4050区间抛空，止损参考4080。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格震荡偏弱本周，HC2305合约震荡下行。本周，HC2305合约强于HC2310合约，14日价差为124元/吨，周环比+39元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-300-200-10001002003002021-11-012021-11-222021-12-132022-01-042022-01-252022-02-222022-03-152022-04-072022-04-282022-05-242022-06-152022-07-062022-07-272022-08-172022-09-072022-09-292022-10-272022-11-172022-12-082022-12-292023-01-202023-02-172023-03-102023-03-31HC2305-HC2310合约价差010000020000030000040000050000060000070000033003500370039004100430045002022-11-012022-11-072022-11-112022-11-172022-11-232022-11-292022-12-052022-12-092022-12-152022-12-212022-12-272023-01-032023-01-092023-01-132023-01-192023-02-012023-02-072023-02-132023-02-172023-02-232023-03-012023-03-072023-03-132023-03-172023-03-232023-03-292023-04-042023-04-11HC2310合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单增加，前20名持仓净多增加4月14日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为55995吨，周环比+18557吨。4月14日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净多54816张，较上一周增加9872张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-022020-02-122020-03-162020-04-172020-05-252020-06-292020-07-302020-09-012020-10-122020-11-122020-12-152021-01-182021-02-252021-03-302021-05-062021-06-082021-07-122021-08-122021-09-142021-10-262021-11-262021-12-292022-02-082022-03-112022-04-152022-05-232022-06-242022-07-272022-08-292022-09-302022-11-092022-12-122023-01-132023-02-222023-03-27库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-140000-120000-100000-80000-60000-40000-200000200004000060000800004000004500005000005500006000006500007000007500008000008500002022-01-042022-01-212022-02-162022-03-072022-03-242022-04-142022-05-062022-05-252022-06-142022-07-012022-07-202022-08-082022-08-252022-09-142022-10-102022-10-272022-11-152022-12-022022-12-212023-01-102023-02-032023-02-222023-03-132023-03-30热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格下调4月14日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为4220元/吨，周环比-30元/吨；全国均价为4266元/吨，周环比-50元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格强于期货价格，14日基差为214元/吨，周环比+46元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002022-01-042022-01-142022-01-262022-02-102022-02-222022-03-042022-03-162022-03-282022-04-082022-04-202022-04-292022-05-132022-05-252022-06-072022-06-172022-06-292022-07-112022-07-212022-08-022022-08-122022-08-242022-09-052022-09-162022-09-282022-10-132022-10-252022-11-042022-11-162022-11-282022-12-082022-12-202022-12-302023-01-122023-01-292023-02-082023-02-202023-03-022023-03-142023-03-242023-04-06全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-200-1000100200300400500600700800900350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002021-11-032021-11-222021-12-092021-12-282022-01-172022-02-102022-03-012022-03-182022-04-082022-04-272022-05-192022-06-082022-06-272022-07-142022-08-022022-08-192022-09-072022-09-272022-10-212022-11-092022-11-282022-12-152023-01-042023-01-302023-02-162023-03-072023-03-242023-04-13热卷10合约期现基差10月基差期货收盘价(10月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货下调，焦炭现货价格下调4月14日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报929元/干吨，周环比-7元/干吨。4月14日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2790元/吨，周环比-50元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-052021-02-032021-03-112021-04-122021-05-142021-06-152021-07-142021-08-122021-09-102021-10-202021-11-182021-12-172022-01-182022-02-232022-03-242022-04-262022-05-302022-06-292022-07-282022-08-262022-09-272022-11-022022-12-012022-12-302023-02-072023-03-082023-04-07青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨20002500300035004000450050002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-272023-03-28天津港一级冶金焦 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量减少据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2352.1万吨，环比减少309.7万吨。4月3日-4月9日中国47港到港总量2321.3万吨，环比减少50.2万吨；中国45港到港总量2269.4万吨，环比增加12.7万吨；北方六港到港总量为1177.8万吨，环比增加81.5万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-242019-04-142019-06-022019-07-212019-09-082019-10-272019-12-152020-02-022020-03-222020-05-102020-06-282020-08-162020-10-042020-11-222021-01-102021-02-282021-04-182021-06-062021-07-252021-09-122021-10-312021-12-192022-02-062022-03-272022-05-152022-07-032022-08-212022-10-092022-11-272023-01-152023-03-05澳巴铁矿石发货总量增减澳巴总量-1000-800-600-400-20002004006008001500170019002100230025002700290031002021/1/32021/1/312021/2/282021/3/282021/4/252021/5/232021/6/202021/7/252021/8/222021/9/222021/10/182021/11/152021/12/132022