PC半导体：新增长驱动因素

Daniel Yen, CFAEquity Analyst nley.comCharlie Chan +886 2 2730-2863Equity Analyst PC Semis: New Growth DriversNeeded Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.comMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Daisy Dai, CFAEquity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.comMORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+ That said, demandcould bebetterthanfearedforNBPC semisinto 2H26. Share gains are important to resuming growth into2027. Tiffany Yeh Equity AnalystTiffany.Yeh@morgans Wemaintain our conservativeview onPC semis companies. Ethan.Jia We upgrade Parade to OW due to potential market share gain in the ASiC-like business and better than feared 2H26 NB demand (especially for Apple). 1H results.Realtek guided for steady end market demand in 2Q amid continuedcustomer pull-in, with Q/Q revenue growth potentially reaching 10% in 2Q. Elanexpected challengingQ/Q growth but low single digit Y/Y growth in2Q.Novateksaid DDI for NB is still growing Q/Q in 2Q, with the mid-point of revenue guidance at+21% Q/Q.Our downstream colleagues (e.g., Howard Kao) currentlyforecast NBODM shipments of +4% Q/Q and -8% Y/Y in 2Q Better to stick to NB...and Apple: We share the view of PC semis companies thathikes (link), especially on DT PC semis (ASMedia), while NB semis clients still appearreluctant to adjust orders. The dynamics could be even more complicated into 2027amid a lack of CPU supply.Companies with iOS exposure remain more resilient thanothers. Some market share shift seems inevitable: In our Sep 2025 report, we said it isstill early to draw conclusions on market share between ASMedia and Parade.However, we now think diversification is taking place.We believe Parade could takesome share in the chipset market, due mainly to better performance on powerconsumption. This should be the new growth driver for Parade, in our view. Upgrading Parade toOW: We raise our EPS estimates by 34% for2027 and 46% for2028,and increase our PT toNT$1,000 from NT$530; our forecasts are aboveconsensus by 16% and 17%for the respective years.For ASMedia, we maintain ournumbers to reflect potential diversification from PC business; our EPS numbers arebelowconsensusby22%for2027and30%for2028. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a resultinvestors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect theobjectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification andother important disclosures,referto the Disclosure Section,located attheend ofthisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company,public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Parade: Estimate Revisions and Quarterly Financials supply chain diversification and account for some share gains in the chipset market, due mainly to better performance on power consumption, which should be the company's newgrowth driver.Exhibit 1: Parade: Valuation Methodology price target is our base case scenario value, which we continue to derive from a residualincome model. Our bull and bear case scenario values rise from NT$850 to NT$1,600 andNT$275 to NT$520, respectively.We boost our our intermediate growth rate from 9.0%to 11.9% to reflect growth driven by the chipset business. : 9.8% cost of equity (beta 1.3, risk-free rate 2% and risk premium 6%) .Payout ratio of 50%. Terminal growth rate of 4.0% Parade: Relative Valuation vs. the historical average of 19.6x since 2012, as we view the chipset business as ameaningful new growth driver. Our OW rating reflects potential share Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: cost of equity (beta 1.3, risk-free rate 2%, gains in the ASIC-like business and betterthan feared 2H26 demand on NB (especiallyon Apple). We believe Parade could takesome share in the chipset market, duemainly to better performance on powerconsumption.The PC market is likely to face strong risk premium 6%) of 9.8%, medium-term growth rate of 11.9%, and terminal growth rate of4.0%.NT$611.83 headwinds amid a shortage of memorychips, which would be more apparent in2H26. Parade now has 90% revenueexposure to PCs.For DisplayPort, low-end panel price competition should get worse before it getsbetter; the the company is leveraging a high-end strategy to differentiate its products.For high-speed interface, Parade seeks to expand beyond the NB market to the datacenter and automotive markets. Risk Reward ThemesSecular Growth: PositiveTechnology Diffusion:PositiveView descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here NT$1,600.00 NT$1,000.00 BEARCASE17x 2026e P/E BASE CASE33x2026eP/E NT$520.00 BULLCASE 53x2026eP/E We expect: 1) significant share gain in thechipset market; 2) T-Con sales to grow20%% Y/Y in 2026; 3) high-speed