GDS控股（GDS US）：下调目标价；短期缺乏催化剂

Internet Software &Services Slowercapacitydeliverycausesmuted2026/2027adjEBITDA (ex.one-offs)growth muted; HSBCe 5%/8%y-o-y 51.4070.50SHARE PRICE (USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE35.02+46.8%(as of 22 May 2026) + Underlying demand still strong with 346MWnew orders YTD(HSBCe>600forFY26);growthtoaccelerate in2028 +RetainBuy;lowerTPtoUSD51.40 (fromUSD70.50);DayOneIPO is a potential catalyst, but beware a near-term overhang Webelieverecent sharepriceweaknesswasdueto1)backlogdeliverytiming,causing mild 2026 and 1H27 adj. EBITDA growth; and 2) concerns about increasingcompetition.The stock is lackingcatalysts in the shortterm,but we see underlyingdemandremaining strong,andexpect2028re-acceleration fromrecent neworders(HSBCe2026:700MW, which takes 6-8quarters for construction and ramp).ADayOne IPO could be a catalyst. Near-termoverhang:Previously,we expected GDS EBITDAgrowth toacceleratefrom 7% in 2026 to 19% in 2027, due to AIDC backlog delivery, but the constructiondelivery has been slower than we expected, despite strong underlying demand. Welowerour2027adj.EBITDA (ex.one-offs)forecastto8% (19%previously),butexpect2028 growth to accelerate to 27%.In 1Q26,GDS recorded cRMB400m of one-offgains, but leaves its guidance unchanged. Excluding this, our forecasts imply adj.EBITDA (ex.one-offs) growth of only 4% y-0-y in 2026. In the short term, limited pricecompetition from telco operators and regulatory approval timing for new DC projectsfrom China's NDRC are also share price overhangs. High conviction on growth beyond 2028:Despite missing near-term catalysts,weremain confident in underlying demand, and adj.EBITDA growth beyond 2028. In2026todate,GDS has signed346MW ofneworders (68%of its 500MWtarget,exceeding full-year 2025's 317MW). We expect total orders signed to reach 646MW in2o26,drivenbyMOUconversion.Theseordershave6-8guartersofconstructionandramp-up period, which means they will start contributing to earnings from 2H27.Weraise our 2028 adj. EBITDA growth forecast to 27% y-o-y (previously: 26% y-o-y), andremain confident in long-term Al-driven demand. HelenFang*Head of Industrials Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitednelen.c.fang@hsbc.com.hk+85229966942 Kenneth Chin*,CFAAssociate.AsialndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedkenneth.t.k.chin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4521 DayOne IPo is a potential catalyst: GDS now holds a 19.9% equity interest in DayOne,valued at USD11.18 per share.Apotential IPO down the road would unlock the value.Excluding DayOne, GDS is trading at 10x 2027e EV/adj. EBITDA (VNET: 8.6x). Bart Liu*AssociateGuangzhou Retain Buy, lower TP toUSD51.40 (from USD70.50): We continue to value GDSdetails on page 3). We now value DayOne using the Series C fundraising valuation forprudency, together with lower adjusted EBITDA forecast for GDS, our TP falls toUSD51.40 from USD70.50. With c47% implied upside, we maintain our Buy rating. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualfed pursuant toFINRAregulations HSBC Funding the Future Survey Sentiment, Al and..Cclick toview Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com We continue to value GDS Holdings using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP)approach. ForDayOne, wenow use its Series C valuation to determine GDS's equityvalue in the company, out of prudency. The series C valuation implies GDS's 19.9% equity interest inDayOne is worth USD2.2bn, or USD11.18 per GDS ADS.Previously,we valued DayOneusing a target EV/EBITDAmultiple of 21x applied to 2027e adj. EBITDA of RMB7,277m.ForGDS's mainland China business,we use13xforwardEV/EBITDAas the target multiple (unchanged), to reflect market discount on the Listco combining mature China DCs,ramping up China DCs, and minority interest in DayOne. We note that C-REIT is currently2026/2027 adj.EBITDA average and renderan equity value per ADS of USD40.22.We usethe average of 2026 and 2027 to better reflect current and medium-term growth potential,given that more capacity will come online in 2027. Adding the DayOne and GDS mainland China business valuations, we derive a rounded TP ofUSD51.40 (previously USD70.50). With c47% implied upside, we maintain our Buy rating. target price of USD51.40 (previously USD70.50)multiplied by7.8 (HSBC Global Research FXteam's 4Q26e HKD-USDforecast)and divided by eight (ADS/ordinary share conversion rate of1/8). Our resulting target price is HKD50.10 (previously HKD68.70), Downside risksFailuretowinnewlargeordersordelay in5ooMWMOUorderfinalisation; slower-than expected delivery of new capacities in Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,or Shaoguan;a slowdown inDayOne's growth, causing GDS Holdings shareholding value in DayOne to decrease; c