中国人民银行正以创纪录速度回笼流动性

PBoC is pulling out liquidity at a record pace MacroStrategist+852-2203-6159 record RMB1tn via outright reverse repos (ORR)-the largest since thefacility'sinception inOct 2024.Despite a modestRMB 100bn net injection through theMLF,this marks the third consecutive month of net withdrawals, culminating in ahistoric totalofover RMB2.5tn. Strategist+852-2203-6153 operations (OMO) to maintain market stability.This balancing act is occurring inanenvironmentofample interbank liquidity,whereawidening gapbetweenbanksavings and loan growth has kept interbank borrowing rates below the PBoC'sbenchmark. We anticipate continued medium-term liquidity withdrawal in the coming months,driven by two key factors -(a) Policy normalization. The PBoC's shift towards aless accommodative stance. (b) Sizeable maturities to come. Substantialupcoming maturities of both MLF and ORR facilities (RMB5.7tn in total over thenext 3 months).This ongoing normalization, combined witha heavy schedule ofCGBissuance,is expected tokeepthe yield curve steep anddrivethe7-day reporate higher. Appendix 1 The views expressed inthis reportaccurately reflect thepersonal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s).In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specificrecommendation or view in this report. Chen Kan, Perry Kojodjojo. Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local companies, and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FiCCDisclosures.Asidefromwithin this report,important risk and conflict disclosures canalsobefoundat https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestrongly encouraged toreview this information before investing. Asia Chart Alert 'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks tocontentnoris responsiblefortheaccuracy orsecurity controlsofthosewebsites.If youuse the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with apurchase or saleofa securitythat is discussed inthis report,orisincluded ordiscussed inanothercommunication (oral orwritten)fromaDeutsche Bankanalyst, DeutscheBank may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person. ownaccount orwith customers,ina mannerinconsistentwiththeviewstaken inthis research report.Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with thosetaken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis,equity-linked analysis,quantitativeanalysis and trade ideas.Recommendations contained in onetype ofcommunication may differ from recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons,methodologies, perspectives or otherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equitysecurities of the issuers it writes on.Analysts are paid in part based ontheprofitability of Deutsche Bank AG and itsaffiliates, which includes investment banking,trading and principal trading revenues. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgmentof theauthoras of the dateofthis report.Theydonot necessarily reflect theopinions of Deutsche Bank andare subject to changewithout notice.Deutsche Bankprovides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by thecompanies it covers.Deutsche Bankresearchanalysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas that may be inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings.Sometradeideas forequitiesare listed as Catalyst Calls ontheResearchWebsite(https://research.db.com/Research/),and can befound onthegeneralcoveragelistand alsoonthe coveredunderperformthemarket and/or a specified sector overatime frameofnoless than two weeks and nomore thanthreemonths.InadditiontoCatalyst Calls,analystsmayoccasionallydiscusswithourclients,andwithDeutscheBank salespersons and traders,trading strategies orideas that reference catalysts or events that mayhave a near-term or medium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may bedirectionallycountertotheanalysts'current12-monthviewoftotalreturnorinvestmentreturnasdescribedherein.DeutscheBankhas noobligationtoupdate,modifyoramendthisreportortootherwisenotifya recipientthereofifanconditionsandinbothgeneralandcompany-specificeconomicprospectsmakeitdifficulttoupdateresearchatdefinedintervals.UpdatesareatthesolediscretionofthecoverageanalystoroftheResearchDepartmentManagement,andthemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervals.Thisreportisprovidedforinformationaindividual clients.It is not an offer or