需求重燃：可负担性处于十年最佳水平

REMD should help strengthen resale liquidity Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+85229966918Oliver Yu* bringing“affordable” units back within reach for families Analyst,AsiaReal EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited oliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85222882050StephenWang*,CFA Analyst,Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+85222841675Brian Yu* 7 May 2026). While the supply side is progressing well (Construction decline: Lessbuilt, less leff, 18 May 2026), we think the demand side is also better supported byimproved housing affordability.This improved affordability has revived mass marketdemand,evidenced bysecondarytransactionsmainlydrivenbyunitsvalued belowRMB3m, which we believe will help stabilise home price expectations (From‘exit'to'upgrade':why resale liquidity matters,24March2026).This morebalanced demandstructurealso easesinvestors'concernsthathigh-end demandis insufficientto Associate,Asia Real Estate Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbrian.d.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85228227281Charlotte Ye* Associate Guangzhou *Employed by a non-US afiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Benefits fromthe doubledeclines:While homepricedeclines have been wellreceived as the core driver of improved housing affordability, we think the impact ofmortgage interest savings has been underestimated.We calculate that the monthlypaymentfora70sqmhomenowaccountsfor50%ofahousehold'sdisposableincome in Shanghai, vs 82% in 2021.This corresponds to monthly interest savings of42%against anassumption that homeprices corrected c15%.The significant andbroad-based improvement in housing affordability should in turn enhance secondarymarket liquidity,which encourages home purchase decisions while rebuildinghousehold confidence in home ownership. Why does it matter for developers? We believe the next critical focus should bethe primary market oncethe secondary market has recovered.Amore liquid resaleand price uplift will be more powerful drivers of market sentiment and a crucial gaugeof developers'pricing power.We therefore suggest close monitoring of the ongoingsales of developers'signatureprojects(May holiday pulse check:Busy sites,bettersales, 8 May 2026). Specifically, we expect a quicker playing out of such secondary-to-primary transmission effect in cities experiencing a supply squeeze (Constructiondecline: Less built, less left, 18 May 2026). Key picks: We continue to prefer CRL and C&D (both Buy) among developers fortheir rich pipeline of premium projects. We also highlight that C&D still has room tocatch up in terms of y-t-d share price performance (Catch-up in play with more upsidepotential, 12 May 2026). HSBCFundingtheFuture Survey Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com price affordability and (2) monthly mortgage payment affordability.Our findings suggest that affordability has improved materially across all city tiers, driven by reset to 10-year-ago levels,and the impact of mortgageinterestsavingshasbeenunderestimated both home-price corrections and lower mortgage rates. The channel of mortgage interestsavings is particularly pronounced in tier-1 cities, where higher unit prices make monthlyrepayment more sensitive to interest-rate cuts.Home price affordability: We define home price affordability as the ratio of the average homepriceperunit tohouseholddisposable income,calculatedas AsP×urban livingspace per capita / annual disposable income of urban residents. This metric capturesimprovements in affordability driven by home price corrections. Monthly mortgage payment affordability: We define monthly mortgage payment affordabilityas monthly mortgage payment / household disposable income, which helps quantify howlower mortgage rates have improved affordability. 1.Income proxy and HPF treatment: City-average disposable income likely understates the income of homebuyers (vs renters). In addition, disposable income excludes HousingProvident Fund (HPF) contributions, which can offset mortgage payments.2.Living space: Using a uniform per-capita living-space assumption (2020 National Population Census)across 2015-25 and all cities ignores variations overtime andacrosscity tiers (typically smaller in tier-1, larger in lower tiers). ownership is no longer limited to higher-income households. Lower home prices and mortgagerateshavesignificantlyreducedthemonthlyrepayments,bringinghomepurchasesbackwithinreach for average-income families, and materially expan