十大问题：提问、解答与再探讨：年中回顾

26 May 2026 #1 Will bank stocks (once again) outperform the S&P?Maybe(vs. Yes in January). YTD underperformance resets the bar. Macro clarity + EPS EquityUnited StatesUS Banks resiliency into 2027 could drive a bid, with large caps at 9–10x 2027E P/E vs. ~12% EPSgrowth. Three Rs intact—but tested: Regulation, Rates, Rebound still in place, butchallenged by stagflation risks. Exhibits 1–4. Ebrahim H. PoonawalaResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 743 0490ebrahim.poonawala@bofa.com #2 Will regional banks outperform GSIBs? Maybe (vs. No). YTD dispersion: capital markets stocks (GS, MS, Trust Banks) and SMIDcaps have led, while money centers/super-regionals lagged. Increasingly idiosyncratic vs.size-driven. 2H26 could see Main Street reassert itself over Wall Street. Exhibits 5–10. Brandon BermanResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3933brandon.berman@bofa.com #3 Will regulatory shift remain a tailwind? Gabriel AngeliniResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3081gabriel.angelini@bofa.com Yes (Unchanged). Capital proposalslargely as expected. Excess capital unlock atregionals surprised positively. Regulatory arbitrage vs. non-banks narrowing; next up:tailoring, liquidity rules. Exhibits 11–15. Michael CamposResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3912michael.c.campos@bofa.com #4 Willbank M&A accelerate? Yes(Unchanged). Structural headwinds (deposit costs, tech spend, succession,intellectual capital) and a supportive regulatory backdrop should drive M&A, especiallyahead of the 2028 election window. Exhibits 16-19. #5Will lack of Fed rate cuts derail bank stocks? No (Unchanged). Higher-for-longer and curve flattening = negative optics, but macrostrength should outweigh pressures (housing, CRE, small/mid business). Exhibits 20-28. Glossary Also see ourJanuary report:US Banks:Year Ahead 2026: Top ten questionsasked (and answered) #6 Willbank stocks become an AI play? Maybe (vs. No). Narrative skewed to disruption (jobs, deposits, software) vs. productivitygains. We see banks as net beneficiaries, but structural ROE shift unlikely. Exhibits 29-31. #7 Will credit quality improve?No (Unchanged). Stablenet charge-offs remain base case, with continued C&I“one- offs”as normalization continues. A full cycle unlikely absent recession. Exhibits 32-39. #8 Will digital assets/stablecoins go mainstream?No (Unchanged). Tokenization gaining traction; faster adoption in B2B (especially capital markets) vs. P2P. CLARITY Act could accelerate institutional uptake. Exhibits 40-41. #9 Will domestic capex pick-up? Yes (Unchanged). Still anchored in AI/data centers, but early signs of modest broadeningbeyond that core. Exhibits42-45. #10Will capital markets meet lofty expectations?Yes (Unchanged). Investment banking momentum (M&A, IPOs, debt issuance), resilient trading, and regulatory flexibility remain tailwinds. Exhibits 46-52. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 39 to 42. Analyst Certification on page 37. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 31. #1 Will bank stocks outperform S&P 500? Maybe (vs. Yes in January) after YTD underperformance. Macro clarity + EPS resiliencyinto 2027 could drive a post‑Labor Day/mid-term bid, with large-caps at 9–10x 2027 P/Evs. 13% EPS growth. Bank underperformance is particularly notable, in our view, becauseof the lack of fundamental drivers. Industry loan growth was very strong in the firstquarter (+6% YoY, +9% large caps, +3% mid caps) and NII has proven resilient while ratecut expectations have continued to migrate into 2027. Capital markets momentum wasextremely robust in the first quarter, with investment banking revenue rising +30% YoYand trading + 17%. Three Rs intact—but tested: Regulation, Rates, Rebound still in place,but challenged by stagflation risks. While growth trends have beeninline to better than we expected in January, the single biggestfundamental shift has occurred in the interest rate backdrop. Higher-for-longer rates while manageable, could create pressure on netinterest margins (due to deposit costs), while serving as a headwind torate sensitive sectors (housing, commercial real estate, small-to-midbusinesses). Decisive end to the Iran conflict that leads to lower oilprices could once again cause investors to recalibrate weightingtowards a still strong domestic capex cycle, in our opinion. So, why have banks underperformed? Banks, and in particular large caps, have been thevictims of a series of negative headlines despite positive earnings revisions year-to-date. Beginning in January with the proposed cap on credit card interest rates, bankshave underperformed the SPX by 670bp (large caps) and 90bp (smid-caps). Concernsaround card profitability were closely followe