锚定到点阵图：中央银行预测与利率预期

Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online) Anchored to the Dot Plot: Central Bank Projections and InterestRate Expectations Eric Engstrom 2026-026 NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Anchored to the Dot Plot: Central Bank Projectionsand Interest Rate Expectations Eric Engstrom∗ May 14, 2026 Abstract In January 2012, the Federal Reserve began publishing the Summary of EconomicProjections (SEP) “dot plot,” revealing FOMC participants’ projections for the federalfunds rate.This paper documents a dual role for SEP projections in the formationof private interest-rate expectations. On one hand, SEP projections contain valuableinformation, achieving lower forecast errors than consensus surveys, VAR models, andseveral market-based measures at many horizons. Because the SEP is informative, somereliance on it by private forecasters is natural. On the other hand, because the SEP isupdated only quarterly, SEP projections that are useful when released can become stalebetween updates. If private forecasts continue to place excessive weight on those earlierprojections, they may respond too slowly to newly arriving information.Consistentwith this prediction, survey forecast errors—and, to a weaker extent, market-basedforecast errors—are systematically related to the gap between current expectationsand lagged SEP projections, even after controlling for macroeconomic conditions, riskpremia, and other predictors of forecast errors. The findings imply that official guidancecan simultaneously improve average forecast accuracy while reducing the speed withwhich new information is incorporated into expectations. JEL Codes:E43, E47, E52, E58, G12, G14Keywords:anchoring bias, monetary policy expectations, Federal Reserve communi-cations, forecast efficiency, dot plot, term structure 1Introduction In January 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began publishing the policy-rate “dot plot” as part of its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), revealing participants’assessments of the appropriate future path of the federal funds rate. Introduced during thezero lower bound period to enhance transparency, the dot plot has since become one of themost closely watched elements of U.S. monetary policy communication, moving asset pricesimmediately upon release and receiving sustained attention from investors, policymakers,and the financial press. An important question is how such highly salient official forecasts affect the formation ofprivate-sector expectations. This paper documents two countervailing roles for the SEP. Onone hand, I find that upon release the SEP contains valuable incremental information aboutfuture policy, and private expectations and asset prices respond measurably to SEP releases.On the other hand, the same signal appears to remain embedded in expectations after it hasbecome stale, potentially consistent with private forecasts inefficiently anchoring to the SEP.As new information arrives between quarterly releases, survey forecasts and market-impliedexpectations under-adjust away from prior SEP projections. The empirical analysis exploits both the introduction of the dot plot in 2012 and time-series variation in subsequent SEP projections.I first compare the forecast performanceof SEP projections with alternative forecasts to assess their informational content, findingthat the SEP is sufficiently informative that private forecasters are justified in placing someweight on it. To test for information rigidities associated with the SEP, I examine whetherprivate ex-post forecast errors are systematically related to the distance between currentprivate forecasts and the previous quarter’s SEP projection. Under efficient updating, thisgap should not predict subsequent errors. Instead, it does. For survey forecasts, SEP-basedpredictability complements a pre-existing tendency for errors to covary with lagged consensusrevisions. For market-based expectations, related but weaker predictability patterns remainafter controlling for macroeconomic conditions and standard proxies for term premia and risk compensation. The macroeconomic relevance of this sluggish adjustment is illustrated by the 2022 tight-ening cycle.In December 2021, the median SEP projected a relatively gradual path forpolicy rates.By early 2022, however, incoming inflation data and policy communicationspointed toward a faster pace of tightening.Yet both survey forecasts and forward ratesadjusted only gradually away from the Decembe