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WESTERN HEMISPHERE DEPARTMENT AnchoringInflationExpectations Evidence from Latin America during thePost-COVID Stress Test Prepared by Philip Barrett, Federico Duenas,Christopher Evans, Eric Huang, Gonzalo Huertas,and Tannous Kass-Hanna INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND IMF WESTERN HEMISPHERE DEPARTMENT DEPARTMENTAL PAPERAnchoringInflation Expectations Evidence from Latin America during thePost-COVID Stress Test Prepared by Philip Barrett, Federico Duenas, Christopher Evans,Eric Huang, Gonzalo Huertas, and Tannous Kass-Hanna Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMFLibrary Names: Barrett, Philip Oliver, author. | Duenas, Federico, author. | Evans, Christopher Michael, author. | Huang,Eric Jincheng, author. | Huertas, Gonzalo, author. | Kass-Hanna, Tannous, author. | International Monetary Title: Anchoring inflation expectations : evidence from Latin America during the post-COVID stress test /Prepared by Philip Barrett, Federico Duenas, Christopher Evans, Eric Huang, Gonzalo Huertas, and Other titles: Departmental Paper. | International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2026. | Includes bibliographical references. 9798229041058(paper)9798229041157(ePub)9798229041126(Web PDF) Subjects: LCSH: Inflation (finance)—Latin America. | Monetary policy—Latin America.Classification: LCC HG229.B3 2026 The Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or cross-country interest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily Publication orders may be placed online or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USAT. +(1) 202.623.7430 Contents Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 2. Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Latin America: Recent Experience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 A. Inflation in Latin America since the 1990s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4B. The Post-COVID Stress Test and the Role of Well-Anchored Inflation Expectations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5C. Measuring Anchoring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6D. International Context. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 3. Sources of Variation in Anchoring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 A. Anchoring Up and Down. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11B. Common versus Individual Beliefs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 4. How Does Anchoring Affect Shock Transmission?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15A. Terms-of-Trade Shocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 B. Monetary Policy Shocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 5. Can Policy Conduct Help Anchor Inflation?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 6. Monetary Regime and Anchoring: Narrative Evidence from Latin America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21A. Conceptual Framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 B. Illustrative Case Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21C. Lessons Learned from Narrative Evidence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .