流动的盛宴：竞价术语

The Bidterms Scores on the Doors: oil 76.6%, commodities 62.5%, ACWI 12.3%, SPX 9.5%, gold7.9%, cash 1.3%, HY 1.3%, US$ 0.5%, IG 0.0%, govt bonds -0.9%, bitcoin -7.1% YTD. 14 May 2026 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Guess we’re gonna find out if a bubble can win you an election.” Zeitgeist:“The one thing Xi defiantly has that Trump wants is low interest rates.” The Biggest Picture: US household equity wealth up $4tn YTD (using BofA privateclient equity holdings data–Chart 2); follows $10tn gain in’25, $9tn gain in’24, $8tngain in’23…wealth key to US“boom loop”, only ended by politics and bonds. The Price is Right: SOX semiconductor index remarkably trading 62% above 200dma,comparable only to French market at peak Mississippi bubble, Nasdaq at peak dotcombubble (Table 2)…exponential price action, market concentration, collapsing vol, stocksbossingbond yields higher, why melt-up everyone’s new base case…here we go. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: US CPI on course for >5% by mid-terms, but few expect Warsh tohike in’26…no Fed hikes why investors positioning for stocks & commodities max bidinto Nov; and why bond yields breaking up (note yields up ~50bps in 3 months after newFed chair…2-year UST yield at 4.53%, 10-year yield at 4.93% by mid-Aug - Table 1). Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, or More on page 2… otherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Weekly Flows: $28.1bn to bonds, $20.5bn to stocks, $5.8bn to cash, $2.0bn to gold,$1.3bn from crypto. Flows to Know: Crypto: $1.3bn outflow, biggest since Feb’26,Treasuries: $5.6bn inflow, biggest in 6 weeks,IG bonds: $14.0bn inflow (Chart 8), biggest 4-week inflow ($42.2bn) since Mar’26,China stocks: $22.2bn outflow, biggest since Jan’26 (Chart 9),US large cap stocks: $24.4bn inflow, biggest in 5 weeks, BofA Private Clients: $4.5tn AUM…allocation to stocks 65.7% (highest ever - Chart15), to bonds 17.3% (lowest since Mar’22), 9.8% cash (lowest ever–Chart 16); past 4weeks private clients buying energy, muni bond, materials ETFs vs selling utilities, BofA Bull & Bear Indicator1: rises to 7.6 from 7.2 on inflows to HY and EM debt; B&BIndicator likely rises to“sell signal”level of 8 next two weeks if May BofA Global FundManager Survey shows cash levels down from 4.3% to 3.8%, and flows next 2 weeksshow inflows of $15-20bn to global stocks and ~$2bn to EM debt and HY bonds. Peak June: bull capitulation into stocks & tech likely fully complete in next few weeks,early June ripe for taking some off table…7thOPEC meeting, 11thWorld Cup begins, 14 4% and there be dragons: US PPI running at 6%, CPI almost 4% as energy, electricity, transportation, goods prices, rents on rise; US CPI on course for >5% by midtermelections unless 0.4% monthly gains of past 6 months slow pronto (Chart 3); above 4%on CPI where risk assets get twitchy...past 100 years once CPI crosses 4% on average SPX -4% next 3 months, -7% next 6 months. Prices to Know: Nikkei annualizing big 86% gain and 10-year JGB yields on pace fornear 150bps rise in '26…reminiscent of‘89 and‘25–Chart 4); Nasdaq and 10-year USTyields both annualizing gains in ominous echo to‘09 and‘99 (Chart 5); other price actionreminiscent of the start of a cycle or the end of a cycle...financial stocks relative toS&P500...now below the Mar’00 dotcom bubble lows, the Mar’09 GFC lows, and Oct’20lows (Chart 6); fab tech EPS, but hyperscalers now heading to cheaper countries (e.g., On Politics: UK local elections vote share of insurgent (Reform & Green) parties surgefrom 3% to 41%, at expense of established (Labour & Conservative) parties (92% to54% - Chart 7)…2020s you can’t govern from center; extreme politics = extreme Wall Stprice action; but Main St anger on affordability and inequality quickest route to lose electorate (Trump approval on inflation 30% near Biden lows); slow-burner but likelypolitical pivot to whip-inflation could cause mass pivot for Chips and Commodities to Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg. *2026 YTD annualized Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg. *2026 YTD annualized Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Asset Class Flows (Table 3) Equities:$20.5bn inflow ($35.4bn to ETFs, $15.0bn