缺失的男性：男性青年劳动力参与率下降趋势

TheMissing Men:TheDownward Trend inMale YouthLabor Force Participation April14, 2026 SamilOhHead,Labor Market Research Team,Research Department, Bank of KoreaTel. 02-759-4232samil.oh@bok.or.kr YoungsikOhJunior Economist,Labor MarketResearch Team, Research Department,Bank of KoreaTel. 02-759-4187ysoh@bok.or.kr JinyeongYunEconomist,Labor Market ResearchTeam, Research Department, Bank of Korea Tel. 02-759-4434jinyeong.yun@bok.or.kr ①The labor force participation rate of male youth,ages25‑34,declined from 89.9% in 2000 to 82.3% in2025,indicatinga substantial decrease relative tothe mostadvanced economies.In particular, thedecline in labor force participation among Millennial men (born 1981-95) persists into their late 30s.Weexamine thisphenomenon throughthree key lenses:(i) shifts in the competitive structure among youth, (ii) ②Firstly,theincrease in labor force participation among highly educated women has resulted inintensified competition.Our empiricalanalysisrevealsthat the probability of labor force participation forhighly educated men born 1991‑1995 is 15.7 percentage points lower than for the reference cohort born1961‑1970, whereas that for women increased by 10.1 percentage points. Consequently, the gender ③Furthermore, industrialtransformationshaveprimarily constrained the labor supply of menwithlowereducational attainment.By 2025, the probability of labor force participation for menwithan associatedegreeor loweris2.6 percentage points lower than in 2000, reflecting a decline in middle‑and low‑skill ④Population aging and AI diffusionalso have restrictedlabor market entry pathwaysfor youth.From2004to2025, the employment rate for the elderlyhas increasedby 12.3 percentage points,with this growthbeingpredominantlyobservedwithin high‑skill occupations. Moreover,it is notable that98.3% of the youth ⑤The decline in the labor force participation rate among male youth and the expansion oflabor forceparticipation amongwomenand the elderlyreflect a diversification of labor supply driven by socialnormchangeand demographicshifts.The transformation oftheindustrial structurehasalsoplayedaroleinshapingthistrend. Consequently,institutional support must beprovidedforthe seamless labor market ▪Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do notnecessarily reflect the official views of the Bank of Korea. When reporting or ▪We wouldlike to express our sincere appreciation to Youngju Kim, Director oftheInflation & Labor Market Division, and Jiho Lee, Director General of the Research Ⅰ. Introduction The working-age population,defined asages 15‑64, and the labor force participation rate are keyvariablesindetermining the total labor supply of the economy.Theworking‑age populationinKoreais undergoinga persistent decline1)dueto low fertilityrates,which isa structural constraint Theaggregatelabor force participation ratein Koreahas risen steadily from 61.2% in 2000 to 64.5% in2025,indicatingariseof3.3 percentage points. However,these trends vary depending onagegroupandgender. While participation among the elderly(ages 55-64)and prime‑agewomen(ages 25-54) has A disaggregationofmale labor force participation by agerevealsa pronounced decline among maleyouth (ages 25‑34), whose rate fell from 89.9% in 2000 to 82.3 % in 2025, a decrease of7.6 percentage points.[Figure 2]Conversely,labor forceparticipation among female youth surged from52.4% in 2000 to 77.5% in 2025, an increase of 25.1 percentage points,therebydriving the overall Source:Economically Active Population Survey Source:Economically ActivePopulation Survey The downward trajectory of labor force participation among male youth may presage subsequentdeclines among middle‑aged and elderly men, thereby hastening the contraction of their laborsupply. Accordingly, this report conducts a detailed examination of the fluctuations in male youth The remainder of this paper proceeds as follows: SectionII providesa description ofobservedcharacteristicsassociated withfluctuations in the labor force participation rate of male youth. InSection III, we empirically examinethedeterminants of labor force participation for both menand II.Characteristics ofMale YouthLabor Force Participation The decline inthelabor force participation rate ofmale youthisa common phenomenon across majoradvanced economies.However, Korea exhibits themost pronounceddecline among OECD members.As shown inFigure 3,themaleyouthlabor force participation ratein Korea was equivalent tothe Figure 4presents the labor force participation rate of men aged 25‑54 by birth cohort,indicatingapersistent downward shift across successive generations.Whilethe intergenerational gap narrowswith age, itfails toreachthe level of the precedinggeneration. TheGenerationX(born 1966‑80)exhibitsa participation gap relative to the baby‑boomgeneration(born 1951‑65) through themid‑forties,with anarrowingthat occursonly in the late forties. The Millennialgeneration Source:Economically Active Populati