低碳政策有效性比较：一种技术扩散方法

11393 Comparing the Effectivenessof Low-Carbon Policies A Technology Diffusion Approach Unnada ChewpreechaFrancesca de NicolaAaditya MattooHector PollittTrang Thu Tran Development Research GroupProsperity Vertical &International Finance CorporationMay 2026 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11393 Abstract This paper studies the effectiveness of different policyinstruments in accelerating the adoption of low-carbontechnologies. Despite substantial declines in the costs ofthese technologies, diffusion remains uneven, driven bylocal economic conditions and policy environments. Usinga modeling approach grounded in technology diffusiontheory, the paper assesses how price-based (for example,carbon taxes and subsidies) and non-price-based (for exam-ple, mandates and regulatory requirements) instrumentsaffect technology diffusion and carbon emissions across four East Asian economies. The analysis explicitly accounts forpath dependence, learning, and technology uncertainty,factors often overlooked in standard models. The resultshighlight the importance of timing and policy sequencing:in the early stages of diffusion, price instruments may be lesseffective while non-price instruments can more successfullyaddress coordination failures and subsequently enhance theimpact of carbon pricing. The optimal policy combinationsultimately depend on the stage of technological maturity,initial technology adoption patterns, and local conditions.. This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics, the Prosperity Vertical, and theInternational Finance Corporation. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank Group to provide open access to itsresearch and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers arealso posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at uchewpreecha@worldbank.org; fdenicola@worldbank.org; amattoo@worldbank.org; hpollitt@worldbank.org; and ttran6@worldbank.org. A verifiedreproducibility package for this paper is available athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org, clickherefor direct access. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Comparing the Effectiveness of Low-Carbon Policies: A Technology Diffusion Approach Unnada Chewpreecha, Francesca de Nicola, Aaditya Mattoo, Hector Pollitt, Trang Thu Tran JELClassification: O33; O38; Q55; Q42; Q43; Q48; Q58 Keywords:Energy transition, technology diffusion, carbon pricing, policy sequencing, renewableenergy, path dependence. 1Introduction East Asia’s approach to climate change will significantly influence global progress toward climategoals, given the region’s substantial and growing carbon footprint.Historically, Western economieshave been the primary contributors to the stock of atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions, buttheir contribution is now in decline (UNEP 2023).For example, the UK has reduced its CO2emissions to the lowest level since 1879.1Conversely, developing countries, particularly in Eastand Southeast Asia,have become significantand growing emitters. China is now the world’s largestemitter, responsible for 30 percent of global emissions annually. The rest of developing East Asiaand Pacific (EAP) nearly doubled its emissions between 1990 and 2020, producing almost 10percent of the global total by 2020. Populations across East and Southeast Asia recognize climate change as a critical issue. Climatechange is perceived as a serious and immediate threat to nationalwellbeing by the majority ofsurveyrespondents from Indonesia,the Philippines, and Viet Nam(ISEAS, 2022). This isunsurprising, considering the region’svulnerability toclimate shocks such asextreme heat, sea-level rise, andmore frequent typhoonsand flooding.These shocks have tangible consequences.For example, higher temperatures reducelabor productivityand worsen mental productivity,including cognition, learning and consequential decisions(Lai et al., 2023). The sense of urgency has translated intopolitical action. Most countries now have targets foremissions reductions and are assessing various policy options to achieve them. China declared a“war on pollution” in2014, when it launcheda nationwide air quality mon