人民币：来自中国的明信片

Perry KojodjojoStrategist+852-2203-6153Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist We hosted a three-day investor trip across Beijing and Shanghai, meetingpolicymakers, academics, market participants, think-tanks, business chambers,and tech industry practitioners. The single most important takeaway: China'sgeopolitical situation is stabilising faster than its domestic economy. While the US-China relationship is on a more stable footing, national confidence is being 1. Warming US-China relations offer stability.The recent Presidential summitdelivered its intended outcome: a crucial tone-setter rather than a transactionaldeal. Dialogue is set to continue, with three more high-level meetings planned for2026 (APEC, G20, and a potential visit by President Xi to D.C. in Sep), where moresubstantive agreements are likely. Post-summit, interaction between both sides 2. K-Shaped growth - New economy carries the old.China is experiencing apronounced K-shaped recovery. The "new economy" (tradeable goods, AI-linkedequipment, capital goods, new energy) is growing strongly, with AI-relatedequipmentexports up nearly 100%YoY.Conversely,the"old economy"(consumption,property,services,domestic investment)remains structurally year, with moderation in 2Q and beyond. Our speakers are confident Chinawill hit its 4.5–5% growth target for 2026, and expect a manageddeceleration to ~4% over the next decade as the country reaches high-income status. 22 May 2026Asia Macro Strategy Notes cut if growth falls meaningfully below the official target. The more impactfulchannel for stimulus will be quasi-fiscal, with policy bank lending serving as 3. The rebalancing dilemma, compounded by AI.The most consistent messagefrom our meetings was that China's consumption problem stems from a lack ofconfidence and income. Households have accumulated an estimated RMB 50–60tn in deposits since 2021 but are reluctant to spend due to unemploymentconcerns, weak nominal wage growth, and severe wealth destruction from theproperty downturn. A decisive consumption rebound is contingent on nominal 4. Inflation - A welcome but still insufficient shift.A commonly shared view is that“bad/imported inflation is better than deflation”. After 41 consecutive months ofnegative prints, PPI has finally turned positive. Can this shift household andbusiness expectations away from deferring purchases? In a deflationary mindset,even a modest change in expectations could have an outsized effect on spending. 5. Foreign business are not leaving.Our conversations suggest that while MNCsare still profitable in China, their margins are slimming. Yet, foreign firms are notactively looking to exit China. The reason is simple: as one veteran put it, "China isthe world's fitness centre—if you can win here, you can win anywhere." Thecompetitive intensity, manufacturing scale, and R&D speed that exist nowhere else 6. Property sector - a permanent regime change.The conclusion from everymeeting was similar: the government has no intention of using property as aprimary growth lever again. Current policies are focused on risk control, notreflation. While the Tier-1 secondary market shows stabilisation in prices andimprovement in sales, new home starts and sales remain low. An industry survey 7. US-China AI gap narrowing.China's advantage in AI is not in frontier models butin application and infrastructure. With 80% of transactions conducted via e-wallets, unified healthcare QR codes across cities, and fully agentic shopping anddelivery apps already in consumers' hands, AI is being layered onto a digitalised 8. Capital account: direction is open, pace is glacial. Opening measures are beinggradually adopted, but a full capital account liberalization is not imminent—Chinadoes not have a target or a timeline for that. The 2015 capital outflow episoderemains a warning. Hong Kong remains the key connector between offshore and 22 May 2026Asia Macro Strategy Notes RMB exposure and Chinese assets without full onshore access, and Beijing iscomfortable with this two-track structure as a long-term transition mechanism. 9. RMB the clearest bullish signal from the trip.Every speaker we met sees the CNYon a clear appreciation path, with a consensus year-end forecast of USD/CNY 6.50–6.70. This trend is driven by corporate settlement flows, as Chinese exportersconvert a larger share of their trade surpluses into RMB. The catalysts for this shiftinclude greater confidence in China’s export competitiveness and domesticgrowth, rising volatility in USD-denominated financial assets, and geopolitical Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research,