2025年全球医疗趋势报告

About this report The information captured in this report isbased on a survey of Lockton’s worldwideoffices conducted in September 2024 tocapture current year and anticipated 2025 •Health conditions making the greatest contribution to claims.•Other cost drivers affecting private health plans.•Cost management strategies most frequently adopted by employers. Medical trend is the year-on-year increase in medical claims cost,an important factor in the calculation of future renewal rates. Theinformation in this report, including projected 2025 medical trend,draws on Lockton Global’s professional experience, 80 local insurancemarkets, and survey responses from leading international medicalinsurers. In some markets, carriers set their own trend. In others, trendis an indexed, set number used universally by all carriers. For thosecountries where a range was provided, the range has been averaged forcomparison purposes. The report is intended to give HR professionals Executive summary Average global medical trend in the coming year is again expected to sitclose to 12%.Employers can expect challenging renewal negotiations andwill need to consider design, cost sharing, network changes, and better •New and expensive medications and technologiesare contributing to cost globally but disproportionately •Double-digit increasesare expected in 53% ofcountries surveyed. in countries where employer plans rather than socialhealth systems are the first payer for all care levels.Pressure to cover a wider range of specialty drugs isbeing felt globally, developments in precision medicine(pharmacogenomics, immunotherapy, targetedtherapies, drug response prediction) that uses patient •Negative health trendsare a key cost driver withcardiovascular, cancer, endocrine disorders (especially,diabetes), and musculoskeletal conditions at theforefront globally. Polychronic conditions andobesity-related conditions along with new expensive •The post-COVID resumption of normal utilization,including lingering delayed care and increasing levels of elective care, has been noted as an ongoing factoralong with concern over continuing waves of •Overwhelmed social medical systemsarecontributing to the migration to private care, even inmarkets with strong social health institutions. Nearlyhalf of responding countries noted this additional •General inflationremains a significant contributorto the cost of medical goods and services even whileCPI is forecast to moderate globally (expected to bedown from 5.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025).1Tight labormarkets and shortages in medical staff have created •Unregulated private medical feesand a lack ofcompetitive pricing among providers concentrated inurban centers in Asia, Latin America, and Africa are To address these cost pressures, employers most often rely on negotiation with carriers and less often on plan designchanges or increasing the employee share of premium or claims cost. In many countries, employees do not contributeanything to the cost of their own coverage and may contribute minimally if at all to cover their dependents. Wellbeing Medical cost trend Global medical trend rates for 2025 are projected to remain relatively consistent with 2024, which means that averagetrend in every region other than the U.S. and Canada is projected to remain in the double digits. Trend in the Middle Some countries are seeing changes of more than +/-25% from 2024, including Belgium, Denmark, Turkey, and SouthKorea. In the Middle East and North Africa, the projected trend is impacted by a relatively low rate in Israel, whileother countries within the region are showing increasing trends. For Latin America and Caribbean and South Asia, Health trends Globally, chronic conditions stemming from stress, inactivity, and poor nutrition represent a growing portion ofclaims. Musculoskeletal issues also continue to drive high claims on both an inpatient and outpatient level. Complexclaims are on the rise, driven by cancer, cardiac conditions, psychosocial issues, chronic illnesses and comorbidities, Early-onset cancers in adults under the age of 50 are increasing, particularly in high-income countries. This shouldconcern employers who are seeing cancer claims at substantially higher rates in this working-age demographic, withgastrointestinal cancers showing the fastest-growing incidence rates. Ongoing research suggests that both personal Societal aging and life expectancy gains are leading to a greater number of individuals living longer with chronicdiseases. Workers are retiring later for personal financial reasons and because governments are increasing the normal In countries where workers are retiring later, employer plans will see higher medical claims associated with age-related illnesses and injuries. That is now being felt in countries that historically enjoyed the benefits of a youngerworking population but that are now graying. Employers in countries where private insurance is strictly subject to Non