2026年日本峰会反馈

KIOXIA Holdings (285A) / Japan Kazuo Yoshikawa, CFAEquity Analyst ganstanleymufg.comHidetaka Suzuki Japan Summit 2026 Feedback Hidetaka.Suzuki@r+81 3 6836-8402 Holdings at ourJapan Summit 2026Strategic technology priorities for FY3/27: In FY3/27, KIOXIA plans to focus on ramping up production of BiCS-8, launching BiCS-10O, expanding the CM series for KVcache applications requiring high performance and high reliability, obtainingcertifications for the high-capacity QLC-based LC series (adoption in Dell serverswas already announced in May), and shipping samples of Super High IOPS SSDs fora GPUvendor. Top PickJapan SemiconductorsIJapan Stock Rating Industry ViewIn-LinePrice target￥70,000Up/downsideto price target (%)26Shr price, close (May 21, 2026)￥55,340Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)￥30,220.4Div yld (03/27e) (%)2.9Fiscal Year Ending03/2603/27e03/28e03/29e the Dec-Q 2025, resulting in ASP growth in the low teens QoQ during the quarter,which was relatively modest compared with peers. However, ASP in the Mar-Qincreased bymore than100% QoQ, driven particularlyby smart-device applications single-digit % increase in GB shipments, a 2-3% contribution from yen depreciation,and the remainder driven by ASP increases. Pricing agreements have already beenreached with the majority of customers for the Jun-Q, while negotiations with theremaining customers are ongoing. LTAs with customers: KIOXIA has received requests from many customers,including hyperscalers, to enter into long-term agreements, and agreements havealready been signed with some customers.The companybelieves that multi-yearagreements will improve earnings visibility and reduce business volatility. However,it seems KIOXIA does not consider securing advance payments a priority innegotiating such agreements. Use of cash: Kioxia plans gross capex of ￥45Obn for FY3/27, with spending weightedtoward the 2H on a semiannual basis. In the Jun-Q, the company also plans to investapproximately ￥77.4bn in Nanya Technology, one of its DRAM suppliers, to securestable DRAM procurement, and to make an early repayment of ￥40Obn in seniorloans.KIOXIA expects to achieve a net cash position by the end of June. Against thisbackdrop, the company is considering a broad range of initiatives related to growthinvestments, capital efficiency, and shareholder returns. Measures includingshareholder returns are scheduled to be discussed at the Investor Day on June 2 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a resultinvestors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect theobjectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. US ADS listing: KIOXIA has stated that it is preparing for a potential US stockexchange listing of American Depositary Shares (ADS)backed byits common shares,with the aim of broadening its US investor base and enhancing corporate value. Thecompany indicated that, if pursued, the listing would Likely take place in FY3/28 orlater. For analyst certification andother important disclosures,referto the Disclosure Section, located at the end ofthisreport. Maintain OW rating as our Top Pick: While our overall view remains largelyunchanged, we have fine-tuned our earnings forecasts and raised our FY3/27-28EPS estimates by approximately 3%. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not reqisteredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications witha subject company.public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Expect Al inference to drive up demand, ongoing solid FCF generation in 2026-27 We expect solid supply-demand conditions FY3/28e EPS × 9: We apply a 10% premium to the 8x multiple given to other memory makers for 2026-27, supported by expandingdemand for Al inference-related storage andcontinued discipline on the supply side, andthink this will likely enable strong FCFgeneration. during past market expansion phases, reflecting our expectations for strong growth indemand relating to Al inference and for QLC-based high-capacity SSD, as well as support onthe supply side from HBM growth projections and tight HDD supply conditions.￥55,415■ New Data Era:PositiveView descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here ￥95,000 ￥22,000 BASE CASEFY3/28e EPS × 9.0 ￥70,000 BULL CASE BEAR CASEFY3/28e EPS ×4 FY3/28e EPS x 10; higher than base case This assumes supply shortages continue in2026-27, and KIOXIA's share of the eSSDmarket grows meaningfully. This assumes NAND demand slows rapidlyand earnings deteriorate. This assumes a rising prospect of continuedtight supply/demand in 2026-27. FY3/28e sales ￥8.Otrn, non-GAAP OP￥6.1trn,EPS￥7,860 FY3/28e sales ￥5.9trn, non-GAAP OP￥4.1trn,EPS￥5,469 FY3/28e sales ￥9.4trn, non-GAAP OP￥7.8trn,EPS￥9,796 RISKS TO UPSIDE NAND flash GB demand g