2026年第一季度在线旅行社：赢得虚假战争

0TAs in the Quarter (1Q26): Winning the Phony War with Expedia, Booking and Airbnb all growing revenues 15-18%, the fastest growth in~2 years and continuing the market share gains from 2025. However, all suggested thewar in the Middle East was impacting that trajectory-Booking and Expedia guided to aslowdown to single digit growth in Q2-4, supported by slightly disappointing bookings/nights growth in Q1. Airbnb guidance was more constructive but helped by its monetizationboost (RNPL, fee changes) and likely higher upside from the World Cup. However, all of thissearch UI changes to favor OTAs, the reversal from the war should be temporary, and Airbnbhas not really inflected ex-its short term monetization/hotels boost. All this is to say thatQ1 remained in thephony war phase,an aside to the real battle on whether Online Travelplatforms can retain their position in the booking flow in a world of Al. The first shots of thereal battle look set to be fired soon, with Google announcing that Hotels will be included inits Universal Commerce Protocol"soon" This willtest the theories that either LLMs can'tcorrectly merchandise travel (Airbnb) or will want to fall back on trusted retailers who act asmerchants of record (Expedia). +44 20 76766850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7676 7144niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7550 2191lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com Airbnb top pick. Airbnb's growth pulled ahead of peers in Q1, with night growth morethan 50% faster than Booking/Expedia. Some of this might be geographical, with moreexposureto the World Cup and lesstothe Middle East,and some can be put down toone time boosts from RNPL andother monetization initiatives, but we expect much issustainable. Airbnb is at two inflection points:(1) Core acceleration: hotel occupancyin many leisure markets is now fully recovered to FY19 levels (i.e. peak) meaning excessdemandwillbetakenbyhotelsasprice,leavingVacationRentalstopickuptheexcessvolume.This willkeep US and other core market growth strong. (2) Expansion beyond thecore: Airbnb is beginning the push into under-penetrated geographies (notably Asia), hotelsand other verticals, which should deliver an increasing contribution to growth each year.Revenue grew 18% inQ1 (15%ex FX)and guided to onlyamodest deceleration throughthe rest of the year. Despite this, consensus mid-term estimates remain at only 10% top linegrowth, similar to other OTAs; a more structural divergence of performance is not priced in,providing an opportunity. BKNG/EXPE.Two ways to take Q1:(1)this was a geopolitical/cyclical influenced quarterbeing treated as the start of a structural slowdown. A return to normal growth would driveclear upside; or (2) Al challenges are coming and the Iran war/oil crisis has knocked out oneof the 2-3 good years beforethis threat becomes moretangible,removing any reason toownthestockevenshorterterm.WehaveupsidetoourTPsbutwithExpediacallingoutcost risks fromAlre-skilling/token costs and Google's Hotel Al product approaching it ishard to built a comfortable bull case beyond valuation. We remain Market-Perform. Tripadvisor. The outlier. Macro risk expanded beyond the Middle East to Hawaii/Mexicoand the only one to call out consumer spending risk.Revenue declined 4%, EBITDA halved- Tripadvisor is in the thick of battle today. However,there are signs of hope includingviator.com putting up 20% GBV growth pre-war, the sale of TheFork being imminent andbeing open to Al training deals on Tripadvisor data. The stock looked like a melting ice cubein Q1 but is valued even worse (5x PE); risk reward remains favorable. Expedia 1Q26: Demand or Al-pick your poisonTripadvisor 1Q26: Take TheFork out, it's nearly readyAirbnb1Q26:HappyHardcoreBooking1Q26:1,001lessArabianNights RecentworkonAl: OTAs: Updates from Airbnb's Summer Release, Google I/O,and Expedia EXPLORE 26Al in Travel: Threat or opportunity - update on the latest debatesOTAs: Google didn't kill the OTAs, so why might Al?Quick Take: OpenAl steps away from direct checkout and a new entrant threatens OTAs'lead on ChatGPTAl and Hotels: Hotel companies start showing their Al strategiesThe Age of Agents: Online travel and Agentic Al - how willit shake up travel distribution? The 3 OTAs have a very different implied path for Q2 / H2 - in order of H2 strength: · international expansion, single payer fee shift) helping to boost growth to well ahead of peers, while World Cup tailwindsshould be the most material for Airbnb and drive growth across Q2/Q3. with a 2% FX boost),requiring an acceleration to almost 7% in H2 to hit their FY guidance, despite persistently weakdemand trends being most severe for Booking given its regional exposure. Expedia's H2looks completely de-risked -Given macro volatility Expedia did not update their FY26 guidance at Q1,onlyneedtodeliverLSDrevenuegrowthtohittheirguidance-thiswouldeither imply (1)a significantslowdown indemand/B2Bpaceor(2)ahighlyconservativeapproach.Weexpectthelatterismore likely