DoorDash（DASH）：盈利严重不足——对部门利润的深度分析

+1 917 344 8425nikhil.devnani@bernsteinsg.com +1 917344 8573nathan.gee@bernsteinsg.com DASH: Massively under-earning. A deep dive on segment profits stock continues to be underpressure with investors nowdebatinga combination ofvolumegrowth dynamics and reinvestment cycles...not to mention Al risk. We appreciate that the storymay notfeel clean right now-there's not a ton in Consumer Internet that does outside thehyperscalers.However,wecontinuetobelieveDASHisoneofthemostcompellingnamesin the space for investors with duration.Weaddressedthe A/bear case here.Today's noteisa deepdive on segmentlevelprofitabilityacrossthecoreUsRestaurantMarketplace,US Grocery&Retail("G&R"),and International.We walkawaywithmore conviction thatthecompanyismassivelyunder-earningandhassubstantialopportunitytogrowitsprofitpool. The growth debate. The Q1 order miss has created some angst around tough comps andgrowth durability. One quarter does not make a trend, particularly one that was clouded bybad weather and headlines ofwar.We continue to see room forhealthy double-digit growthgiven GOV guidance, online penetration rates for DASH's end markets, and the company'sability to innovate, improvethe platform,and drive engagement higher. Moreprofitablethan wethought.Wehavetomakeplentyofassumptions,but weattemptto disaggregate DASH profitability nonetheless - model available on request. TheEBTIDA last year, a margin of >6% of GOV, with US Grocery & Retail a ~$1B headwindto the reported figure and International a -$0.5B drag. By 2027E, we estimate the coreUSRestaurant Marketplace couldproduce $5.9Bin Adjusted EBITDA with consolidatedprofitability of $4.9B. International should be contribution profit positive in 2H26, with ourtimeline for G&R being 2H28. Eventually, these growth areas will flip to EBITDA tailwinds. The opportunity.On the back of the recent sell-off,DASH is now trading at 11x our 2027E Investment Implications DASH shares have been under pressure and YTD performance has been weak (-30%). We attribute this to a combination of:(1) high-multiple, high-SBC names de-rating; (2) Al concerns growing for consumer Internet as a basket while other sub-sectors oftech are clear beneficiaries from Al; and (3)the company's self-inflicted reinvestment cycle (announced 3Q25) dragging downEBiTDAnumbers.WehavearticulatedourtakeontheAlbearcasehere,andwon'trepeatourstance inthisnote.Ourfocus inthis piece is on the underlyingtrends in the business and refreshing our outlookfor segment-levelprofitability, whichweremainoptimistic on.We believe DASHis the mostcompelling name in our coveragefor investors with duration. publicly traded QSRs (not for the first time), has also contributed to debate on DASH's growth -both with respect to durabilityiftheconsumerismorestretchedandthelonger-termopportunity.Themarkethasbecomemorenegativeontheset-upfor2Hgrowth as the compares get more challenging. Our take: trend persists, but these growth curves aren't always linear, as much as we all model it this way. Q2 GoV guidance was higher than our model pre-earnings even against a tougher compare. We appreciate theimportance of order growth for out-year durability.: Our estimates peg US Restaurant GOV growth in Q1 at 15% in 1Q26 or ~16% backing out weather. This implies strongdemand trends and continued share gains within the broader restaurant market (offline + online).: We believe more of the deceleration could've come from Grocery & Retail growth rates normalizing (while remaining The competition narrative has also increased both around UBERin international markets and AMZN in Grocery.Our perspectiveis that the market always has been (and continues to be) competitive. . While UBER is stepping up investment levels in Europe, it's also worth noting that restaurant commission rateswere raised in the US, highlighting to us that competitive dynamics remain manageable and broadly rational.These markets are large and under-penetrated, particularly in Europe, the region in question. Not every market has been asuccess for DASH, with Japan being the most notable exit, and the company is stillproving out the ROl. But market share hasbeen grinding higher, with line of sight to contributionprofit growth now as well.This reinforces to us that DASH can havepositive contributions from these expansion markets without necessarily being #1 across the board, which was never ourexpectation. .AMZN'slatest effort around 30-minutedelivery via Amazon Nowis a risk worth monitoring,as it eats intothespeed advantage that the third-party apps offer for Grocery & Retail. Broader merchant selection and SKU depthremain the differentials (i.e., diversity of merchants and the full grocery store vs. merchandise Amazon carries for this service).Given online penetration rates and the overall size of the market, we see roomfor multiple players at this stage.DASHdoesn't need to 'win'grocery and realistically won't in a world with WMT and AMZN' - butit can build a big business thatcompleme