电池储能系统 - 投资者经济学入门

economics towards Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).In thisprimernote on BESS, we attemptto de-mystify the economic modelof these assets and highlightkey considerationsforinvestors.BEsSprojectshaveseensignificantcostdeflationandenergydensity improvement deepa.venkateswaran@bernsteinsg.comJorge Alonso Suils +34915893913jorge.alonso@bernsteinsg.comBartlomiej Kubicki in recent years:The global cost of turnkey energy storage systems (excluding EPC andgrid connection) fell at a CAGR of ~19% from 2017-2025, with a 31% fall between 2024and2025followinga~40%fall between2023and2024. +49 69 717 4418Rory Graham-Watson as wellas battery installationmaturity:Standalone BESS revenues are basedon a stackof revenues comprised of trading hourly wholesale power price differentials (arbitrage),ancillary services (payments for providing various services to the grid such as frequencyresponse)and capacity markets (where they exist).Battery storage earnings exhibit astrong natural cyclicality,with short development timelines and few barriers to entrymarket comparatively quickly.Periods of strong intra-day volatility (often associated withaccelerated roll-out of solar generation capacity) drive opportunitiesfor arbitrage profits,but thenew BESS supplywhich is incentivised by these excess profits will lead to erosionoftheearnings overtime.Saturation in non-trading markets,e.g.ancillary services,is evenmore rapid,as we have seen in mature markets such as the UK.Thus, BESS investmentscan be victims of their own success, over time. We currently see the most promisingopportunitiesinGermany,whilstintheUKtheoutlookismorechallengedduetomarketsaturation,although it offers several revenue stacks.Spain,Poland and Italy are also seenas attractivemarkets.Battery IRRs are seenasbetween8-12%,althoughas therevenuestreams are not fixedforthe duration oftheBESS investments,theseIRRsarelessfirmcomparedtoIRRsofvanilla renewableprojectsundera long-termPPA or Contract for Difference (CfD).Tolling or cap and floor arrangements can de-riskbattery revenue streams but will naturally deliver lower returns. +44 20 76767093rory-graham-watson@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7676 8243ken-ree.choong@bernsteinsg.com +33158985916thibault.dujardin@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7762 5256gareth.b.williams@bernsteinsg.com Co-located BESS with renewables is a growing niche andwillbethelogical nextstep:Giventhe lowbarriersto entryandthehighcyclicalityofearnings,co-locationofBESS with renewableparticularly solar could offer more stable returns by improving theeconomicsofrenewableprojectsimpactedbylowcaptureprices/negativeprices/uncompensated curtailments.Co-location makes sense insaturated renewablemarketsreliant on merchant prices/ PPAs such as Spain adding ~100bps to a PV project IRR (4hBESS and storing30%of expected production). Investmentconclusion:WithbatteriesaccountingforanincreasingportionofEuropeanutility capex plans but a return outlook that varies widely by market and over time, investorswill need to carefully scrutinize battery investment plans and claimed IRRs as well asaccountfor thehighercost of capital comparedto vanilla renewable projects.Within ourcoverage, Grenergy,RWE, Engie,Enel and Solaria are particularly focusing on BESS. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS With batteries accountingfor an increasing portion of European utility capex plans but a return outlook that varies widelybymarket and over time, investors will needto carefully scrutinize battery investment plans and claimed IRRs as well as accountforthe higher cost ofcapital compared to vanilla renewableprojects.Within our coverage,Grenergy,RwE, Engie,EnelandSolariaareparticularlyfocusingonBESS. StandaloneBESSStand-alonerevenuestreams-mixofstackedmerchantandcontractedrevenuesCapacity Markets - Helpful revenue stream but mind the de-rating12BESS specific auctions (ltaly)..14Standalone BESS economics - Tolling and floors vs merchant model...15Summary economics for standalone BESS.18Co-located BESS.20Drivers of co-location..20Funding models -hybrid auctions/ ppas.21Illustrative economics of co-located BESS..21CaseStudy:BESSinSpain.21High solar penetration has triggered the duck-curve with high spreads...21Spain's BESS capacity is expected to grow exponentially.22Impact of co-located BESS on solar IRRs..23Standalone BESS in Spain..23 DETAILS European renewable players have slowly increased their interest in and capital allocation towards Battery Energy StorageSystems (BESS). In this primer note on BESS, we attemptto de-mystifytheeconomicmodelof these assets and highlightkeyconsiderationsforinvestors. BESSGROWTHISACCELERATINGWITHOURCOVERAGEALSOALLOCATINGCAPITAL As set out in Exhibit 1,the volume of BESS projects commissioned in Europe annually has been rapidly increasing as thebusiness casefor standalone BESS has improved with the penetration of more intermittent renewable increasing intra-daywholesalepower pricespreads as phases ofoversupply (during periods of renewable supply)alternate withphases ofsc