买入：新叙事成为关键焦点，而非盈利和产品路线图

EquitiesSemiconductors & Equipment Buy:New narrativeskey focus vs earnings & roadmap United States ◆Another beat & raiseexpected for1QFY27/2QFY27,alongwithfurtherFY28 earnings upside MAINTAIN BUY ◆New narrativesbecoming key focus vs earningsmomentum ◆RetainBuy;raiseTPtoUSD325(from USD295) Expecting another beat & raise,with more upside to FY28eearnings:At itsupcoming1QFY27 results announcement on May 20, we expect NVIDIA to report1QFY27revenue of USD81.1bn,4%/3%higher than management guidanceandVisible Alpha consensus estimates of USD78.0bn/USD78.6bn.We alsoexpect2QFY27e revenue of USD91.1bnvs consensus estimateofUSD85.6bn,implyinganother “beat and raise”quarter. We also raiseour FY28e EPSby27% to Earningsmomentum& product roadmapless meaningfulnarratives:Over thepastfiveyears, all majorNVIDIAstock price movements have been led by acombination ofits evolvingAI productroadmap—starting withsignificantASP pricingpower withfirstgeneration AI GPUs, A100 and H100—drivingsignificant earningsupside along with consistent “beat and raise” financial results. However, since thebuzz around sovereign AI andtheopportunity from neoclouds, no new narrativehas Potential new narrativesbecomingbiggerkeyfocusgoing forward:DespitetheeverincreasingCAPEX trend by CSPsthatshowsno signs ofabating,NVIDIAnowhastosharethe CAPEXwithmemory makers, AI networking, andserver CPUvendors.Hence,NVIDIAneeds to showevidence of diversifyingitsnon-CSP Frank Lee*Global Head of Tech Hardware & Semi ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfrank.lee@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6916 Pulkit Aggarwal*AssociateBangalore RetainBuy;raisetarget pricetoUSD325(from USD295):WeraiseourFY27/FY28EPS estimatesby3%/27%on higherdatacentrerevenue estimates. We derive ourrevised TP of USD325by applying our FY28e target PE of25x(from29x)to our FY28eEPS of USD13.01(fromUSD10.23). With c46% upside, weretain ourBuyrating,as weexpectthe Blackwell momentumandRubin ramp to sustain earnings momentum,with * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report:TheHongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:NVIDIA Corp Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 18 May2026 Upcoming earnings preview 1QFY27resultsand2QFY27eguidancetobeat the Street We expect1QFY27revenue of USD81.1bn,ahead of management guidance(mid-point)ofUSD78.0bn andconsensus estimates of USD78.6bn.Webelieve thecontinuous ramp ofGB300will continue to drive revenuegrowthin 1H FY27e,as Rubin is expected to start rampingin 2H FY27e.Ournon-GAAP gross margin estimates of 75.0% remainsin line with the Going into2QFY27e, we expect revenue of USD91.1bn,aheadofconsensus estimatesofUSD85.6bn,as weexpectthecontinuousGB300 ramp todrive revenues as AI GPU demandremains intact.We expect margins to remain flat at 75.0%, in line with consensus of 75.1%.Our USD1trnGPUrevenuestillseemsoptimistic At NVIDIA GTC in March 2026, CEO Jensen Huang highlighted avisibility of USD1trn inBlackwell and Rubin revenues through demand and purchase orders in 2026 and 2027combined.Webelievethepathto USD1trn in Blackwell and Rubin revenues can be capped by ◆Supply constraints:We believe that CoWoS capacity will continue to remain a bottleneck.DespitetheFY28e CoWoS capacity revision from 900k wafers to 1.1m wafers, we believeNVIDIA will need >1.5m CoWoS wafers to hit USD1trn, which remains doubtful as capacitycontinues to remain tight.Additionally,we believe front-end foundry capacitycould also bea potential bottleneck as TSMC’s advanced nodes remain tight,with incremental 3nm ◆Customer concentration:Most of therevenuecontinuesto flow from traditionalhyperscalers.Currentcapex estimatefor traditional hyperscalers for 2026-27 is USD1.65trn.NVIDIA’s USD1trn revenue will imply 61%of hyperscalers’capex would flow to NVIDIA alone,excludingspending on peers’GPUproduct, ASIC spend,and server CPU spend giventhe We conduct a sensitivity analysis based onUSD1trn combined revenue for Blackwell and Rubinduring FY27-28. Our bull case implies an upside to 32% vs our base-case EPS.However,forthe reasons mentionedabove, wedo not have enough conviction around the USD1trnrevenue Earningstrendless meaningful; newnarratives key for re-rating Over the last five years,NVIDIAhas cemented its position as the ultimate bellwether of the AItrade. In the lastfiveyears,itsshare price has movedby+1,542%(vs SOX+270%)driven byits transformation from agaming-focused hardware maker into a full-stack AI infrastructure Over the pastfiveyears, consistentreporting of financial results thatbeat and raisedexpectations,along with new narratives emerging regularly,helpeddrivetheshareprice higher