2026退休储蓄充分度与退休收入规划研究报告：资产-工资比率评估方法

Retirement savings adequacy andretirement income planning: Abstract Financial planning can help individuals toward greater financial securityin retirement but can often be complex. In this paper, we examine howa simple measure, the asset–salary ratio (ASR), can be used to gaugean individual’s retirement readiness. We discuss how varying keyassumptions alters retirement income planning outcomes, includingsavings, investment returns, salary growth, retirement timing, and length Brent J. DavisTIAA Institute Andrew GellertTIAA Institute Benny GoodmanTIAA Institute 1. Introduction of both liquid cash withdrawal and annuity income. Weconduct sensitivity analysis on projected outcomes whenadjusting the underlying assumptions. Finally, we providehistorical ASR outcomes for various worker cohorts. Whilefuture returns may differ, examining how ASR outcomes Many Americans save for retirement through their workplaceretirement plan, and over three-quarters of them save with adefined contribution (DC) plan (EBSA, 2023). Compared withdefined benefit (DB) plans, DC plans combine plan features,such as auto enrollment and portability, with access to equitymarkets through qualified default investment alternatives(QDIAs). But individuals need to manage their retirementsolvency risk—that is, their risk of having insufficientaccumulated assets to support their target standard of 2. ASR and replacement rates Replacement rates:We adopt a retirement income goalbased on the practitioner approach of replacement rates(Kim et al., 2014) because in contrast to traditional economictheory (Ando & Modigliani, 1963; Modigliani & Brumberg,1954), most individuals don’t smooth their consumption overthe lifecycle (Agarwal et al., 2015; Aguiar & Hurst, 2013). A Determining one measure of retirement savings that providesa sufficient savings metric for everyone is difficult due todifferences in life expectancy, spending habits, and otherindividual characteristics (Poterba, 2014). Nonetheless, asingle measure can be informative as a benchmark for peergroup comparisons and as a tool to simplify retirementsavings and planning. Without a DB plan that provides lifetimeretirement income, the measure should focus on retirement Many financial planning researchers and advisors suggesta 70% to 80% pretax replacement ratio would be enoughto support the preretirement standard of living. We focuson 80% because it has a simple and intuitive grounding. Ifsomeone is earning $100,000 pretax, saving 10% of eachpaycheck for retirement, and paying 7.65% in OASDI taxes(Social Security and Medicare taxes), that person’s payis about $82,000 before federal and state income taxes.If in retirement, this person receives $82,000 pretax(or 82% of preretirement income) generated from theirsavings accumulation, their standard of living is effectivelyunchanged because they do not pay OASDI taxes or needto save for retirement. For many this is an upper bound for Earlier work by Hammond and Richardson (2010) usesthe asset–salary ratio (ASR) as a proxy for estimatingthe adequacy of an individual participant’s DC retirementplan funding. The ASR is a plan participant’s accumulatedretirement assets divided by their salary at a given point intime. We translate this metric into a target ASR (Par ASR) tomeet a target retirement income replacement rate becausethe primary purpose of a DC plan is not to accumulate assetsper se,1but rather to support a stream of retirement income Social Security provides a basic retirement income benefitfor most Americans, with over 90% of Americans over age 65receiving a Social Security benefit.2On average, it replacesabout 40% of preretirement income (Biggs & Springstead, This paper reviews the ASR methodology and discusses howit can help workers across the age spectrum assess if they areon track across several different initial assumptions. Whentranslating ASR to a retirement income replacement rate, One exception is bequest. See Lockwood (2018) for a discussion of howbequest motives affect late-life financial planning.. 2Some workers in the public sector are not covered by Social Security.https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/basicfact-alt.pdf. more than 50%, depending on lifetime wages and claimingage. Table A1 in the appendix shows the estimated SocialSecurity replacement rate (SSRR) at various wages andclaiming ages. For simplicity, we assume Social Securityprovides a 30% replacement rate. This is akin to someonewith average career earnings of $100,000 claiming at age65 (Burkhalter & Rose, 2025). We also assume scheduledbenefits are payable in full. Our 30% assumption is moreconservative assumption to allow for the possibility ofyears away from the labor force or time in non-coveredwork. Future policy changes as the Social Security trust Taking our approach, what ASR (Par ASR) does the individualneed to meet this income replacement target? Thisrequires settling how a retiree generates retirement income, 2.1. Composition of reti