全球基金经理调查：志在必得

19 May 2026 BofA May Global Fund Manager SurveyBottom Line: record rise in FMS equity allocation (Chart 1) and big cut in cash levels Investment StrategyGlobal (4.3% to 3.9%) driven by surge in EPS optimism and forecast of Fed rate cuts; BofA Bull& Bear Indicator now at 7.8 (chip shot from “sell-signal”); bull capitulation almostcomplete, early June ripe for profit-taking, bond yields to determine degree of pullback. On Macro& Rates: pessimism on global growth melts, just 4% predict “hard landing”;record jump in FMS investors expecting double-digit EPS growth; Iran concerns subdued,66% expect Hormuz bottleneck ends in the next few months; bull vulnerability is“behind-the-curve”Fed (just 16% expect Fed hikes in’26) driving long-end higher (62%of FMS investors targeting 6% on 30-year Treasury yield vs just 20% targeting 4%). MichaelHartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com On Risk& Allocation: 73% say“long global semiconductors”= #1 crowded trade, 40%say“inflation”= #1 tail risk, most likely sources of credit event = shadow banking (42%)& AI hyperscalers (34%); AA = all-in on risk-on…most OW cyclicals vs defensives sinceJan’18, most OW tech since Feb’24, 4thhighest commodity OW ever, most UW bondssince Jun'22, Eurozone UW 1stsince Dec'24, and consumer most out of favor. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com FMSContrarian Trades: based on FMS positions relative to history, contrarians wouldbe covering shorts in bonds, US dollar, UK assets & consumer stocks, and paring lengthin commodities, stocks, EM assets & tech/semis. Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com Net %overweightequities (m/m change, ppt) Notes to Readers Source for all tables and charts:BofA Fund Manager Survey,DataStream Survey period May 8thto 14th, 2026 200 panellists with $517bn AUMparticipated in the May survey. 170participants with $461bn AUMresponded to the Global FMSquestions and 92 participants with$209bn AUM responded to theRegional FMS questions. How to join the FMS panelInvestors/clients are encouraged to sign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthlyresults but only for the relevantmonth in which they participate. OW: overweight; UW: underweight AA: asset allocation Timestamp: 19 May 2026 12:01AM EDT Charts of the Month May 2026 BofA Global Fund Manager Surveysaw global investor sentimentrecover to thehighest level since Feb'26; our broadestmeasure of FMS sentiment, based on cashlevels, equity allocation, and global growthexpectations, rose to 6.6 to 3.7. Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation BofA FMS cash level dropped to 3.9% from4.3%, the biggest monthly drop since Feb'24. BofA FMS average cash level (% of AUM) FMS cash level at or below 4.0% triggers sellsignal. Note median 4-week loss from globalstocks after 24 sell signals since 2011 is -1%(biggest loss recorded post-sell signal = -29%,biggest gain 4%). Investors turned less pessimistic on theoutlook for the global economy with just 4%predicting a“hard landing.” What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months? 46% see a“soft landing”as the most likelyoutcome, while 39% expect“no landing.” Global growth outlook recovered in May fromnet-36% to net -14%, but expectationsremain negative. Stock prices continue to outpace investormacro expectations. On profits…May FMS saw the 6thlargestmonthly surge in profit expectations. Net 17% of investors now expect globalprofits to improve (flips from net 14% lastmonth expecting profits to deteriorate). Asked what the biggest tail risk is…40% ofFMS investors said“2ndwave inflation,”upsharply from 26% last month. 20% said“geopolitical conflict,”down from44% in April (was the #1 tail risk last month). Investors this month were also asked whenthey expect the Strait of Hormuz to bereopened. Most expect the Strait to be reopened in June(44%); 22% say Q3’26 and 10% say May’26. On oil prices…FMS investors expect oil totrade at $85/bbl (on a weighted-average basis)by end’26 (vs $84/bbl a month ago); thiswould be a 39% increase from $61/bbl Brentat the start of 2026. Chart9:Just 7% expect Brent oil to end '26 above $100/bblIn which of the following ranges do you expect Brent oil to trade in by year-end 2026? 26% of investors expect oil to trade at$90/bbl or higher by year-end. And just 7%expect oil to end the year above $100/bbl. Note that net 46% of FMS investors believeoil is overvalued…highest since Aug'08. Expectations for highershort-term rates havejumped big (from net 4% to net 23%, highestsince Oct'22), aligning with an elevatedinflation outlook (net 66% expect higher globalCPI). On bond yields… 30Y UST yield