中国汽车：4月零售年化销量1960万辆；销量同比下降20%，燃油车大幅下滑（-34%），电动车渗透率提升（60%）且出口强劲（+85%）

Chinese Autos: April SAAR 19.6mn units; Volumes -20% yoy, ICEslumps (-34%), while EV surges (60% penetration) and exportrobust (+85%) 19.6mnunits.Wetrackmandatoryfirst-timeautoinsurancevolumesinChina,whichwebelievegivesthemostaccuratereadonretailsell-through.Aprilretailpassengervehiclesalestotaled 1.39mn units, -19.6% yoy. The April retail SAAR of 19.6mn units is lower than 20.7mn in March 2026 and our estimate of normalized annual demand of c.22mn units.Aprilcontinued to reflect pull-forwarddemandfrom2024-2025 subsidyprograms (whichweestimatebroughtforwardover 5mn units),alongsidea high base effect.(Links tomonthly salesvolumetrackers:PVWholesale,andPVRetail.) +85221232606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com +85221232634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com April EVpenetrationreboundedstronglyto59.7%,withBEVs accountingfor41.9%andPHEVs 17.8%.EV sales declined-5.8%YoY, with BEVsup +4.5% and PHEVs down-23.6%.The continuous recovery in EV momentum from March (-17.7% YoY; 54% penetration)suggests consumers are gradually adjusting to the higher purchase tax (raised to 5% fromJanuary 1, 2026, vs. nil. previously), alongside the impact of newly launched EV models thatofferstrongerpricingandproductcompetitiveness. RisinggasolinepricesalsoweighedonICEdemand(-33.9%YoY).BYDGroupremainedthe largest EV seller in China with volume reach 184k units and market share stabilize at22.2%.Geely Group ranked second with 97k units and 11.8% share, followed by Changanat 54k (6.5%)and Leapmotorat 50k units (6.0%).OtherEV pure-plays included Xiaomi 37k(4.4%), Li Auto 34k (4.0%), Tesla 27k (3.2%),XPeng 25k (3.1%), AITO 23k (2.8%), and NIOat21k(2.5%).. Premium brand sales declined by -17.1% yoy, with locally-built premium brands -12.4%yoy and imported premium brand cars-39.6% yoy.Amongmajortraditional premium brands,Mercedes posted the weakest performance with a -33% decline, while Audifell-30%, andBMW-23%.Porschealso reported a-45%drop.On the other hand, Xiaomi posted+29%growth, Huawei-backed HIMA+18%,andNIO+5%.Mass-market brand retail sales plunged-20.0% yoy,reflecting greater sensitivity to subsidy removal and higher purchase taxes. China's passenger vehicle exports grew +85% yoy in April, with ICE exports +52%andEVexports+126%.EVsmadeupclosetohalf(c.49%)oftotalPVexportsforthemonth,reflecting continued momentum driven by higher oil prices amid U.S.-lran tensions. In April,Cheryled with389k units (+54%yoy),followed byBYDwith312k (+56%).Geelymaintainedthe third place with 203k units (+129%), while SAIC ranked fourth with 175k units (+68%)Great Wall exported 112kunits, +47% yoy. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS Wemaintain a cautious outlook forthesector entering2026.Thereduction in subsidiesanda 5% purchase tax hike on EVsareexpectedto slowmarketmomentum.This follows strongdemandpulledforward into2024-2025anda highcomparisonbase,whilemacro headwinds and weak consumer sentiment persist. The industry will also face pressurefrom material costinflation headwinds.We expect industry wholesalevolumes to reach 28-29 mn units,falling 4-8% yoy.Weforecast domesticretail demand of 21-22mn units, declining 5-9% yoy.Exports should remain a growth driver, arriving at 6.5-7mn units, growing10-20% yoy. The long term secular growth outlook for EVs remains intact and even though EVtransition has come to the mass adoptionphase in China,weforecast domestic EVsales growth will be c.5-10%for2026and driveEVpenetration to61%.Webelievecompetition within the domestic market will remain intense and overseas markets are increasingly important as a strategicgrowth opportunity.For our EVnames,werateBYD and Xiaomi Outperform,andXPeng,Li Auto,and NioMarket-Perform. Recentresearch highlights: 18May2026-China Autos Export Tracker:Q12026 exports +63% yoy,EV surges with BEV+113% andPHEV+146%;Chinesebrandsextendglobalfootprint8May2026-China Autonomous Driving:2026 Tour Takeaways-Advancing Autonomously7 May 2026 -EV TRACKER - March 2026: Spring recovery in EV sales as gasoline price ignites buyer interest5May2026-ChineseAutos:Challenging homemarket,Strengthabroad-Modelupdates followingQ1review1 May 2026-China Smartphone Tracker (March): More pressure on low-end29Apr2026-GeelyQ1:Solid Core,RisingZeekrandOverseasmomentum29Apr2026-BYD:Q1soft,butbetterthanfeared-Theclearingeventweneeded. 27Apr2026-Xiaomi:2026InvestorDaytakeaways-Al,Overseas,Memory,and Humanoid robotics27Apr2026-ChineseAutos:Artificialintelligence...soonerorlater...Altakesthewheel26Apr2026-ChineseAutos:2026BeijingAutoShowtakeaways-ChinaasBattlefieldorLaunchpad? Chineseautos retailsales,as measuredbymandatoryfirst-time insurancevolumes,came inat1.39mn units inApril 2026,-19.6% yoy. Retail SAAR for April 2026 registered at 19.6mn units, lower than 20.7 mn in March 2026, 23.8mn units inApril2025andourfullyearforecastofc.22mnunitsforChineseautosdemand.(Exhibit2) to -19.6% from -21.8% in March, driven by expanded local subsidies and new model launches.Consumer demand remainssubdued, with buyers exhibiting high price sensitivity and