软银、Arm：从生成式AI到智能体AI；首次覆盖给予跑赢评级

SoftBank, Arm: From GenAI to Agentic AI; Initiating withOutperform Ratings David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com 1.0, Chatbots are limited to advising, leaving humans to interpret and do the actual job. WithGen AI 2.0, AI Agents are able to plan, act, and execute jobs, and iterate entire workflowsautonomously. Agentic AI creates much more value than AI 1.0 and sees much broaderadoption; Capgemini estimates the economic impact of Agentic AI to be at least $456bnduring 2025-28. Agentic AI consumes 1,000x more tokens compared to AI 1.0, whichdrives up AI token demand and hence monetization for AI agents, model, infrastructure andchips. Agentic AI will also lead to Gen AI 3.0 (physical AI) and eventually 4.0 (AGI). Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com SoftBank benefits greatly from its investment of the full stack of AI and theevolution from Gen AI 1.0 to 4.0. SoftBank is one of the few companies that investedto the entire stack including infrastructure (SB Energy), Silicon (87% of Arm, Ampere,Graphcore), Models/Agents (11% of OpenAI), and physical AI (ABB Robotics). AgenticAI drove AI adoption and revenue growth ofOpenAI: its revenue ARR grew more than10x to $25bn in March 2026 vs. 2 years ago, and its Codex has experienced a "ChatGPTmoment" in April 2026 by evolving into a powerful, autonomous agent.Armis the centerof the renaissance of CPUs because of Agentic AI, and potentially will capture the GPUaccelerator TAM as well. Increased token consumption and AI adoption also means moreAI infrastructure build out, including Stargate, which is whatSB Energyis for. Finally,SoftBank Roboticsis well positioned for the future rise of Physical AI, especially with theinvestments in ABB Robotics. Thanks to these investments, SoftBank’s NAV has grown$105bn since it started investing in OpenAI in 3Q CY2024. Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Arm is the structural beneficiary of the renaissance of CPUs for agentic AI.Comparedto Gen AI 1.0, Agentic AI involves heavily autonomous task orchestration and execution,which can only be done by CPUs. While traditional AI data centers require ~30 million CPUcores / GW of compute, Agentic AI data centers require ~120 million CPU cores / GW—a4x structural increase.The ratio of GPU:CPU is shifting from the current 8:1 to 2:1 / 1:1,with server CPU TAM quadrupling to $137bn by 2030. Arm stands out in server CPUs givenits unparalleled power efficiency. In addition, Arm is shifting from just IP provider to CPUmaker, aiming to capture $15bn revenue by CY2030. We forecast Arm’s revenue to grow more than five-fold to $26 Bn by 2030, with EPSexpanding similarly (~5.5x) to $9.83, supported by the growing adoption of Arm CPUs inAI data centers, its own Arm CPU revenue, and the rising royalty driven by the higher valueArm provides to clients through the rapid evolution of CPUs. With 90x P/E on Q5-8 EPSof $3.33,we rateArm Outperform with PT= $300.00. In the bull case, we can see Armbeing valued at 40x on $9.8 2030 (FY31) EPS, implying a valuation of $390. We expect SoftBank’s NAV to grow to $390bn in a year, mostly contributed by Arm (basedon our PT of Arm). If OpenAI valuation goes up from the latest round of $852bn, that’d beadditional upside. With a 25% NAV discount,we rate SoftBankOutperform with PT =¥8,200.00.In the bull case, applying the high end of Arm valuation and 15% discount, weget a valuation for SoftBank at ¥11,200. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE COVERAGE INITIATION Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate SoftBank (PT=¥8,200.00) and Arm (PT=$300.00)Outperform. Table Of Contents Agentic AI and SoftBank / Arm...........................................................................................................................................................................................3Agentic AI is Gen AI 2.0................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3Agentic AI drives AI usage explosion, followed by monetization.....................................................................................................................5Agentic AI leads to Physical AI and eventually AGI.............................................................................................................................................. 8SoftBank invested in the full stack of AI............................................................................................................................................................... 10Arm at the center of CPU renaissance, driven by Agentic AI.........................................................................................................................13SoftBank: The Full AI Stack Investor...........................................