中国软件行业：生成式AI推动客户支出；首次覆盖商汤给予中性评级；下调广联达至卖出

Gen-AI to drive customer spending; Initiate on Sensetimeat Neutral; Glodon down to Sell We are positive on China Software, which we see benefiting from the Gen-AI trend— with upside to ARPU, converting free users into paying customers as well asmigration of business models away from delivery of hardware to software deliverywith subscription (SaaS). We are positive on companies with higher revenueexposure to Gen-AI and SaaS (e.g. Kingsoft Office, Kingdee). In this report, weinitiate on Sensetime at Neutral and downgrade Glodon to Sell. Allen Chang+852-2978-2930|allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Verena Jeng+852-2978-1681|verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Ting Song+852-2978-6466|ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xuan Zhang+852-2978-1478|xuan.zhang@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Sensetimeis a leading AI supplier in China, offering Gen-AI total solutions, from anAI foundation model (SenseNova) to customized industry models for AI applicationsoftware (SenseAvatar/SenseChat/SenseMirage etc.), mainly targeting governmentand enterprise clients across varied industries. With wide product coverage, weexpect Gen-AI revenues to contribute 81% in 2030E (vs. 64% in 2024), with thecompany’s offering of customized solutions with a specific industry focus (Finance/TMT/ Telecom etc.) supporting an accelerated ramp-up. With the emergence of the DeepSeek AI model, we are seeing greater popularity ofGen-AI applications that have a pathway to monetization across ToC, ToB and ToGclients. Sensetime’s AI projects normally cost between US$1mn~30mn, and thecompany offers integrated solutions that are easy for clients to deploy. We arepositive on the enhanced AI reasoning and multi-modal capabilities of SenseNova(v6.5). Sensetime has expanded its Gen-AI product coverage to capture monetizationopportunities including Finance (FinAgent, SenseAvatar), Healthcare (SenseChatMedical), Enterprise services (Office Raccoon) etc. The company is also focusing onmainstream scenarios to accelerate monetization and secure operational efficiency,and working to trim its opex, which will assist in the path to profitability. Valuation:12m TP of HK$1.83, based on the average of 10.7x 2026E EV/Sales andour two-stage DCF valuation. With 11% upside (vs c.10% upside for our coveredstocks on average), we initiate at Neutral. Sensetime trades at 8.8x 2026E EV/ Sales,close to our target price implied multiple of 9.6x, suggesting the positives are largelypriced in. Our earnings estimates are in line with BBG consensus, and we expectnet profits from 2028E.Catalysts:(1) 2H25: New product launches of AI agents,industry AI, and SenseNova upgrade; (2) Growing AI investments across various industries; (3) Enhanced efficiency of project development and implementation, savinglabor cost to improve profitability.Risks: Faster-/slower-than-expected generative AIcustomers ramp up pace; higher-/lower-than-expected customer spending;fiercer-/milder-than-expected market competition. Separately, withGlodon‘sproduct diversification from construction cost business toconstruction mgmt. software and design business slower than our previous estimates,we now see the stock’s valuation as stretched. We revise down our 12-month TP toRmb11.9, suggesting 13% downside. Sensetime top charts Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Company data Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Sensetime customers and projects (1) SenseNova & SenseChat: foundation model and LLM Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Function:SenseNova is SenseTime’s foundation model, empowering multipleSenseTime AI applications like SenseChat, SenseMirage, Raccoon, etc., and can beapplied to industries including coding, office, education, entertainment, painting, andfinance. Generative AI privatecloud revenue (40% oftotal revenue, 2025E) The total revenue ofprivate cloud = # of clients* (annual spending on“all-in-one machine” + AIsoftware ARPU) User Case:Xiaomi AI Glasses are equipped with SenseChat as the AI interactive andanalytical assistant, accomplishing seamless real-time communication with users. (link) Commercialization: Number of clients isestimated based on annualnet adds. To C:SenseNova allows to C customers to access SenseChat for free withnfunctions like video understanding, education, video and audio interaction. To B:SenseNova also supports private deployment and charges a fee for tokensnused. Annual spending on“all-in-one machine” isbased on estimated ASPand number of machinesper client. AI software ARPU isestimated based on annualdollar retention ratechange. Key updates:SenseTime launched its upgraded SenseNova 6.5 foundation model at theWorld Artificial Intelligence Conference 2025, with the price-to-performance ratio raisedby 5