2026 Global ETF Outlook Report: From a Tool Carrier to the Pillar of the Market

From wrapperto backbone April 2026 Contents 1Preface 2About the authors3Global outlookfor ETFs6Megatrendsby region19Our marketpredictions23Industrypredictions412025 predictionsrevisited49Endnotes Preface In 2025, the global ETF marketplace climbedto almost US$20 trillion, with record inflowsand a record number of new ETFs listed This outlook is designed to be practical —an input you can use across planning •A global outlook that frames That momentum — and our vantage point onit — sets the foundation for this 2026 report.Informed by State Street’s internal research,ongoing client and stakeholder discussions,and participation in industry committees •Regional megatrends to highlighthow growth drivers diverge across •Our market predictions for 2026 •A curated set of external partnerperspectives across the ecosystem •Our 2025 predictions revisited —what held and what shifted This year, the most important ETF storywon’t be simply “more”— it will be “more” and“fundamentally different.” ETFs are expandingthe investable universe, bringing increasinglysophisticated strategies and asset classes With so much in motion, our focus is onhelping you move from insights to execution.The State Street ETF team is ready toengage — globally and locally — to support Anna Bernasek About the authors Frank KoudelkaGlobal Head of ETF Solutions Jeff SardinhaHead of ETF Solutions, Ken ShawHead of ETF Solutions, EMEA Global outlook We titled State Street’s 2025 Global ETF Outlook “The expansionaccelerates.” As the year unfolded, the framing proved to be spot on.Multiple records were set in 2025, powered by shifting investor preferences,structural and product innovations, and the expansion of ETF use cases The ETF story is resonating, and manyglobal asset managers have moved fromviewing ETFs as a “side experiment” to We see three key trends shaping theETF marketplace globally: 1.A growing tension between access andstructure.As ETFs broaden investor accessto new strategies and asset classes within ETF managers are broadening access toasset classes and increasingly complexstrategies previously limited to private wealth, 2.Accelerating active adoption.ActiveETFs, particularly active fixed incomeand outcomes- and derivatives-based This expansion is well timed as advisors areleaning more heavily on ETFs as core buildingblocks, capable of anchoring nearly every 3.The rising importance of infrastructureand distribution.Share classes, conversions(351s), and distribution economics are The market has responded with a wave ofnew entrants and product launches, includingseveral industry firsts. And while regulatorytailwinds continue to support innovation, In 2026, the ETF growth and innovation storycontinues — with a twist. While new constraintsare emerging, ETFs are still advancing acrossmarkets and geographies. No longer just a What does all this growth, innovation, andincreasing complexity mean for 2026? Box 1. ETF records set in 2025 Key ETF metrics to understand the breadth of acceleration in 2025 include: The global ETF marketplace ETFs saw record inflows ofUS$2.4 trillion globally, an increase a US$4.9 trillion increase fromthe end of 2024.$19.85T 26% from the previous record in2024 (US$1.9 trillion) December of 2025 was ETFs are not growing off the backof market performance alone 48% of the change in global AUM camein the form of net new money. inflow month (US$330 billion) and the firstUS$200 billion inflow month for equity. A record Actively managed ETFs recorded 2,795 70% increase in inflows (US$638 billion) overthe previous record of US$374 billion. new ETFs listed globally,997 more than 2024. Actively managed fixed income ETFs recorded US actively managed inflows in 2025 46% surge of inflows (US$459 billion) amidshifting rate regimes. eclipsed total passive ETF inflowsfrom 2023 (US$464 billion). Megatrends Across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific , the 2026 outlook for ETFsconverges on a common theme: ETFs are evolving from core beta tools intothe default distribution and implementation layer for modern investing. APAC also shares the growth narrative,but it’s more market-diverse and regulation-shaped. The region’s ETF base is expandingfrom a larger passive foundation, with activeadoption accelerating unevenly acrossmarkets. Australia is scaling rapidly as globalmanagers import active lineups; China’sgrowth is driven by low-cost and thematicdemand, supported by policy tailwinds; North America is defined by scale andinnovation. After back-to-back years ofUS$1 trillion2inflows in the United States and In Europe, the outlook is one of marketmaturation and broadening adoption.A record 2025 sets the stage for 2026, withactive ETFs emerging as the defining productmomentum story3— still representing onlyapproximately 3 percent of assets, but North America North America enters 2026 in a clear growthphase. The US ETF market begins the year onstrong footing after two consecutive y