铠侠2025财年第四季度：价格稳健但长期协议（LTA）缺乏明确性

Rating edward.hou@bernsteinsg.comYipin Cai, CFA UnderperformPrice Target yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com ? 285A.JP ourexpectation&thelatestconsensus.ASPmorethandoubledQoQacrossallendmarkets,whilebitshipmentretreated1O%QoQduetoseasonality&equipmentmaintenance.FQ1guidance implies another60-70%ASPincrease,similartoourforecast, and hence numberswerebroadlyaboveconsensus andourmodeltoo.FQ2OPMwasguidedtoreach74%,matchingSanDisk'sJunquarterOPMguidance. and are in discussion formore. Dueto NDA, no details were given except the LTAs will go intoeffect starting CY27. demand, while PC and smartphone may see unit drops, esp. in low end. Industry bit growthis constrained by supply & thus at high-teens% this year.With more clean rooms available,KIOXIA believes its output can outpace the market. For CY27,KIOXIA sees demandto stayabove supply, but seems less sure on how fast demand can grow, due to potential distortionsfrom double ordering and customer inventory. Spending will be more weighted towards 2H, and mainly on tools for BicS8, which hadbecomethelargestnodebyMar&someonBicS10. Dividend isbeing considered.KIOXIA expects to reachnet cashposition in FQ1.Futureshareholder return policy is still being discussed but will prioritize on dividend payout. Source: Company reports, Bernstein estimates and analysis EXHIBIT 8:AIl end market sawASP driven growth inFQ4.EXHIBIT 9:SSD's mix increased moderately in FQ4. Source:Company reports and Bernstein analysis Source: Company reports and Bernstein analysis book value now. think is justified, given NAND's more challenging competitivelandscape.And we hence remain more cautious onKioXiAinthelong-run. KIOXIA:WerateKIOXIA Underperform withtarget price of JPY17,000. References to"Bernstein" or theFirm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between BernsteinandSocieteGenerale otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's“affiliates”relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. Samsung Electronics CoLtd WevalueSamsungElectronicswith1.6xof2-yearforwardBVPSandarriveatpricetargetofKRW225,000foritscommonsharesKRW191,250forpreferred shares,andUS$3,888forUSADR. SKHynixInc We value SK hynix with 1.5x of 2-year forward BVPS and arrive at price target of KRW1,150,000. Micron Technology Inc We valueMicron with2x of2-yearforward BVPS and arrive at pricetarget of US$510 RISKS KIOXIA Holdings Corp Upside risk to our target price include 1) stronger than expected NAND demand growth, which likely would lead to better NANDbetterthanexpectedcost reduction Samsung Electronics CoLtd The biggest downside risk to our target price is an earlier end of favorable pricing environment, which can be a result of weakerdemand or higher supply. Investor sentiment and hence the valuation rewarded by investors is also a risk. China's progress inmemory,especially inNAND,isa downside risk too. SK Hynix Inc The biggest downside risk to our target price is an earlier end of favorable pricing environment, which can be a result of weakerdemand orhigher supply.Investor sentiment and hence the valuation rewarded by investors is also a risk. China's progress inmemory, especially in NAND, is a downside risktoo. Micron Technology Inc The biggest downside risk to our target price is an earlier end of favorable pricing environment, which can be a result of weakerdemand or higher supply. Investor sentiment and hence the valuation rewarded by investors is also a risk. China's progress inmemory, especially in NAND, is a downside risk too. EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12months versus the S&P 500 for stocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges,versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn IndexEUR (EDME)for stocks listedonthe European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside oftheAsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Largeand Mid CapPrice Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japanese(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. oneventsanddevelopments. NotCovered (NC)denotes companies that are notunder coverage. Bernstein brand stockratings are based on a 12-month timehorizon. Autonomousbrand-commonstocks TheAutonomous brandrates commonstocks as indicated below.As our benchmarkswe use the Bloomberg Europe 5oo BanksAnd Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR(EDMFI)indexfordeveloped Europeanbanks andPayments,theBloomberg Europe5OO InsuranceIndex(BEINSUR)fo