ANURAS 2025财年第四季度回顾：领先但风险回报不利

2024A2025A2026E14,751.014,370.016,957.03,807.04,009.04,804.01,286.0933.01,323.07.7%6.9%7.8% 2027E19,694.05,633.01,793.08.4% Bhaskar Chakraborty * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6113 | bchakraborty@jefferies.com The Long View: ANURASInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferANURAS is a specialty chemicals player with expertise in flow chemistry. Ithas a diversified customer base and is diversified across verticalsRs55bn LT contract wins provide medium-term growth visibility; brownfieldexpansion to improve ROCESlow ramp-up of revenue contribution from the LOIs/contract winsStock trading close to historical average, implying unfavorable risk reward.Base Case,INR520, -45%Revenue CAGR 17% over FY25-27E, helped bynew contracts39% PAT CAGR over FY25-27EPT Rs 520 at 33x fwd P/ESustainability MattersTopMaterial Issue(s):1)Hazardous material/waste management:Adequate systems andprocesses are required to track hazardous material handling and waste disposal.2) Process designto reduce waste:Moving to continuous process from batch processes and using reduction at sourceto lower effluent production.Company Target(s): 1)Reduce GHG emissions by 10%.2)Adopt more renewable energy.3)Reducefreshwater consumption 5-10%.Qs to Mgmt: 1)What process do you follow to track hazardous waste through disposal?2)How muchof your revenues come from continuous processes?ESG Sector Integration | Indian ChemicalsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,INR950, +1%Revenue CAGR 30% over FY25-27EEBITDA margin at 32%56% PAT CAGR over FY25-27EPT Rs 950 at 40x fwd P/E Downside Scenario,INR450, -52%Revenue CAGR 12% over FY25-27E22% PAT CAGR over FY25-27EPT Rs 450 at 30x fwd P/ECatalystsNew contract winsNew capex plans Exhibit 2 - Anupam Rasayan Quarterly Summary.Income StatementRevenuesRaw Material CostsGross ProfitGross Margin (%)Staff CostsOther OpexEBITDAEBITDA Margin (%)Depreciation and AmortizationEBITEBIT Margin (%)Finance CostsOther IncomePBTTaxesCurrent TaxDeferred TaxEffectice Current Tax Rate (%)Profit After TaxSource: Jefferies, company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 3 - ANURAS standalone revenues trend.0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.01QFY212QFY213QFY214QFY211QFY22Anupam Rasayan Revenues(Rsbn)Source: Jefferies, company dataExhibit 5 - ANURAS standalone EBITDA trend.02004006008001,0001,2001QFY212QFY213QFY214QFY211QFY22Anupam Rasayan EBITDA(Rsmm)Source: Jefferies, company dataExhibit 7 - Inventory days trends.2212960100200300400500600FY 21FY 22Inventory daysSource: Jefferies, company dataExhibit 9 - Working Capital Trend.0100200300400500600700FY 21FY 22Working Capital daysSource: Jefferies, company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: Jefferies, company data4QFY25Exhibit 6 - ANURAS standalone PAT trend.01002003004005006001QFY212QFY213QFY214QFY211QFY22Anupam Rasayan PAT(Rs mm)Source: Jefferies, company dataExhibit 8 - Receivable days trend.92050100150200250300FY 21Receivable DaysSource: Jefferies, company dataExhibit 10 - Key CF items trends.(8,000)(6,000)(4,000)(2,000)02,0004,0006,0008,000FY 18FY 19Rs mmOperating Cash FlowSource: Company reports, Jefferies FY 22 Exhibit 11 - Net debt trends.4.36.60.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0FY 18FY 19Net debt(Rs bn)Source: Jefferies estimates, company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 13 - ANURAS Summary P&L.(Rs mm)Net RevenuesAnupam Rasayan (Ex Tanfac)TanfacRaw Material CostGross ProfitAnupam Rasayan (Ex Tanfac)TanfacOverall Gross Margin (%)Staff CostsOther OpexEBITDAAnupam Rasayan (Ex Tanfac)TanfacOverall EBITDA Margin (%)Depreciation/AmortizationEBITAnupam Rasayan (Ex Tanfac)TanfacOverall EBIT Margin (%)Finance CostsOther IncomeExceptionalsPBTTaxesCurrent TaxDeferred TaxPrior PeriodPAT Before JV/AssociatesShare of JV/AssociatesProfit After TaxPAT Margin (%)Non Controlling intrestReported PAT net of Minority InterestSource: Company, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 14 - Anupam Rasayan Summary Balance Sheet.(Rs mm)AssetsNon-Current AssetsGross PP&EAccumulated DepreciationNet PP&ERight of Use AssetsCapital Work in ProgressIntangible AssetsOther Non-Current AssetsTotal Non Current AssetsCurrent AssetsInventoriesFinancial AssetsTrade ReceivablesCash & Cash EquivalentsLoans and Other Financial AssetsOther Current AssetsTotal Current AssetsTotal AssetsEquity and LiabilitiesEquityEquity Share C