中芯国际2026年一季度：平均售价上涨推动二季度强劲展望

SemiconductorManufacturing International Corp Rating zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.comFrancis Ma Outperform Price Target francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com ? 981.HK ? 688981.CH120.00 CNY consensus, GPMbeat butNPM slightly lowerthan consensus (Exhibit 1).2Q26guidancebeatconsensus significantlyonbothrevenueandGPM(Exhibit 2).Themgmtdeliveredaveryoptimisticoutlookfor2026,drivenbystrongerAlrelateddemand andbetternichememorydemand,alongwithexpectedASPimprovement.MaintainOutperform.The earnings are solid,2026 demand outlook better than expected.Mgmt clarified that while smartphone related demand is weaker in the quarter due to higher memory pricing,strong demandfrom Al related chips and niche memory offsetthat weakness.Capacityremain tight, SMIC's existing logic, MCU, and power capacities are fully loaded, mgmt willgradually allocate new capacity to niche memory.With high utilization, SMiC has negotiatedprice increase with clients and improved theproduct mix, leading to a 2.5% QoQ rise in ASP.We expect SMiC may continue to raise ASP as the tight supply further materializes duringfollowing quarters. landed at USD 1.56bn, slowing down from 4Q25 (USD2.41bn), likely just normal quarterlyfluctuations.1Q26 capacity added was roughly9kwpm (12"-equiv).For thefull year 2026,the guidance is flattish at around USD 8bn total CapEx. We believe this indicates a steadypaceof capacity release to supportthe strong Al-driven companion chips demand,andCapEx could still remain robustto support structural capacity needs. ASPgrowthmayoffsetheavierD&Ain2026tomaintainGPM.1Q26utilizationdroppedslightly to 93.1% (from95.7% in 4Q25) due to new capacity entering the denominator.Mgmtstillexpects around30%growth in2026D&A,which impliesdepreciationwill remainaheadwind.But looks like the robust 2Q26 GPMguidance indicates that risingASP and highutilization should bring upside to GPM to offset the D&A pressure. application was industrial and automotive,withrevenue share jumpingto14.0%from9.6%ayear ago.In2026,as Alapplications likeroboticsdrive strong demandfor companion chips,and localfabless continuetogainshare,expect Chinesefoundriestofurthergain shareaswell. EXHIBIT3:Minority interest % of total netproift remained at17% in1Q26. SMICCapacity(8"equiv, kwpm)&UT (RHS) References to"Bernstein" or theFirm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services toproduce Bernstein researchundera Global Services Agreement in place betweenBernsteinandSocieteGeneraleBernstein is partof a joint venture betweenSociete Generale (SG)and AllianceBernstein,L.P.(AB).Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's“affiliates”relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. RISKS Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp Downsiderisks: .Furtherunexpected sanctions from the U.S.hinder its capacity expansion plan or seriously affect its continuous operation.:Worse-than-expected downstream demand recovery results inlower-than-expected utilization and ASP at SMIC.:Faster-than-expectedcapacityexpansion from competitors wouldleadtosupply/demand imbalance andworseprices. RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernstein brand TheBernsteinbrandrates stocksbasedonforecasts of relativeperformanceforthenext12months versus theS&P500forstocks listedon the U.S.and Canadian exchanges,versus the Bloomberg EuropeDeveloped Markets Large and Mid CapPriceReturn Index EUR (EDME)for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outsideof the AsiaPacific region, versus theBloomberg Japan Largeand Mid CapPrice Return IndexUSD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges,andversus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid CapPrice Return Index (ASIAX)for stocks listedon the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: .Outperform:Stockwilloutpacethemarket indexbymorethan15pp :Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market indexbymore than 15pp CoverageSuspended:CoverageofacompanyundertheBernsteinresearchbrandhasbeensuspended.Ratingsandpricetargetsaresuspendedtemporarily,arenolongercurrent,andshouldthereforenotbereliedupon Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accurately Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage. Bernstein brand stockratings arebased on a 12-month timehorizon. Autonomousbrand-commonstocks The Autonomous brand rates common stocks as indicated below.As ourbenchmarks weusethe Bloomberg Europe 5ooBanks And Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large