华虹半导体2026年第一季度：平均售价（ASP）改善前景积极

Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Hua Hong 1Q26: Positive outlook on ASP improvement Hua Hong released 1Q26 earnings on May 14th, 2026 with revenue in line but GPM slightlymissed, while the strong 2Q guidance on GPM and positive ASP outlook in the next fewquarters is the highlight.Maintain Outperform. 1Q26 results were solid, 2026 ASP outlook strong.1Q26 revenue reached $661m(+22.2% YoY, +2.0% QoQ) and GPM stood at 13.0% (flat QoQ), both meeting mgmtguidance. The upside surprise came from the 2Q26 guidance, which projected revenueof $690m-$700m (implying +4.5% to +6.0% QoQ) slightly miss street cons. but GPMexpansion to 14%-16%. Unlike the conservative view in previous quarters, mgmt nowexpects full-year average ASP to rise by ~10%, with some high-demand platforms seeing upto 25%-28% hikes. The cumulative ASP increase could reach 10%-15% by year-end as thesupply-demand dynamic remains tight. AI and auto continue to drive structural growth, price hikes materializing.MCU wasthe fastest-growing segment in 1Q26. BCD (PMIC) demand remains one of the highestcertainties, driven by AI servers, auto, and robotics, with notable order growth from overseas(US/EU) clients adopting a "China for China" strategy. Mgmt also confirmed the ongoingprice hikes in NOR Flash, expecting a 10%-15% increase driven by the memory supercyclespillover. However, consumer electronics demand remains relatively weak due to thecrowding-out effect from memory price surges. 12-inch capacity expansion trajectory clear, equipment procurement unaffected.1Q26 CapEx was $925m, heavily weighted toward 12-inch lines. Fab 9A is expected tofinish its ramp and reach full capacity by 3Q26. Meanwhile, Fab 9B construction alreadykicked off in March 2026. Equipment will start to move in by 4Q26, output will begin in2027, and the fab should become fully-loaded by 2028. Fab 9B will focus primarily on 40nmspecialty processes with a total CapEx of ~$6bn to be mostly deployed over this year andnext. Notably, mgmt explicitly stated that US export controls do not have impact on theircurrent equipment procurement or lead times. Continue on next page... Fab 5 acquisition on track, new tech pipeline expanding.The acquisition of Huali Micro(Fab 5) is progressing smoothly into the substantive review stage and is expected to close in2H26. The 55nm/40nm assets will provide immediate synergies for existing BCD, PMIC, andeNVM capacity. Beyond traditional specialty logic, mgmt highlighted emerging optionality:the group is actively planning for Silicon Photonics (SiPh) to capture AI high-computeinterconnect demand, which synergizes well with existing BCD and backside processingcapabilities. Furthermore, Hua Hong has initiated R&D for GaN and SiC (potentially throughJVs or partnerships) to complement its silicon-based power devices and compete with globalpeers. EXHIBIT 3:Hua Hong 4Q25 revenue reached USD 660mn, QoQ +4% EXHIBIT 13:Consumer Electronics, Industrial & Auto showed similar growth in 1Q26, while Computingoutperformed other end markets INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain Outperform rating on Hua Hong benefiting from the foundry upcycle. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd We value Hua Hong with H-share PT HKD 100 and A-share PT CNY 140, based on average NTM+1 BVPS of 4.05 USD, and 3.2xP/B with 1.5x A-H premium RISKS Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd Downside risks: •The matured node foundry demand recovery in China is weaker than expected due to sluggish macro, leading to lower UT thanexpected. •Faster-than-expected capacity expansion from competitors would lead to supply/demand imbalance and lower than expectedASP.•The impact of high depreciation, low GM and low ROE could lead to investor sentiment being worse than expected, slowingP/B multiple expansion. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION E