2025年第四季度业绩：3月季度平均售价（ASP）将赶超同行

Dec-Q 2025 Results: Mar-Q ASPSet to Catch Up With Peers Mar-Q guidance has alleviated concerns regarding KIOXIA’s price negotiations with OEM customers. ASP rose by low-teens % QoQ. Revenue came in at ¥543.6bn (+21% QoQ). Adjustedgross margin (adjusted for transactions and R&D in CoGS) was 40.2% (+4.3pptQoQ), and OP was ¥144.7bn. the mid-point), with GB shipments declining but ASP rising sharply, and OP of¥440–530bn (vs. recent market expectations of around ¥300bn). +100% YoY (expecting Mar-Q ASP to rise nearly 90% QoQ, followed by +10% QoQin Jun-Q), (2) we incorporate manufacturing/supply compensation revenues fromSanDisk (covered by our US semi analyst Joseph Moore). its JV partner SanDisk. This reflects: (a) concerns that the Dec-Q guidance suggestedpossible difficulties in price negotiations with OEM customers; and (b) overhangconcerns related to potential share sales by Bain Capital and Toshiba. However,based on the latest guidance, we forecast adjusted gross margin of 66% for Mar-Q, in line with SanDisk’s guidance. We believe concern (a) has been alleviated. We raise priority of DRAM capex at memory producers, it will take time for NAND supply tocatch up with demand, and (2) we expect KIOXIA to achieve a net cash position inmid-2026, at which point shareholder returns may be considered. Risks include (1) Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Risk Reward - KIOXIA Holdings (285A.T)Risk Reward – KIOXIA Holdings (285A.T) AI inference drives NAND demand. 2026 supply/demand outlook is favorable OVERWEIGHT THESIS ¥33,000 FY3/27e EPS x 12; higher than base caseNAND shortage to continue in 2026-27, andKIOXIA's share in eSSD grows meaningfully. Risk Reward – KIOXIA Holdings (285A.T) Risk Reward Reference links 1. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology - Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf 2. View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes - RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf3. View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf4. View explanation of Theme/Exposure methodology -